UK, EU Count Losses
   Date :09-Aug-2019

 
By ARUN SRIVASTAVA:
 
The impact of Brexit will vary considerably across the European Union, with some regions bracing for severe costs and others less exposed. In fact, a study carried out by the Union points out that there may be divisions on the EU side that can be exploited to Britain’s advantage.
 
BORIS Johnson’s pledge that the UK will fiercely pursue his Brexit policy and leave EU on October 31, “no ifs or buts,” has not only put the British polity in a blind alley but has created a piquant political situation in the European Union. Apparently Brussels is not against the Brexit and allowing the UK to walk out of the Union, there is lurking fear that it would jeopardise Union’s interest at the global level. This is the reason that European Union has been leisurely taking its own time.
 
The impact of Brexit will vary considerably across the European Union, with some regions bracing for severe costs and others less exposed. In fact, a study carried out by the Union points out that there may be divisions on the EU side that can be exploited to Britain’s advantage. Trade is a concern for the great majority of local authorities across Europe who responded to the survey. Realising this ambivalent situation, the UK has been trying to create more confusion about its stand than in reality should have been evident. While former Prime Minister Theresa May had at one stage tried to play her card, she could not succeed due to the forces supporting the EU standing not falling in the line. May miserably failed to articulate her stand and mechanism. It is not yet clear that how far Boris would succeed in using the political and economic situation in his favour.
 
There is no denying the fact that while the emerging situation would severely jeopardise the UK’s interest, it would damage the economy of EU constituents. A hard Brexit will lead to 42,000 job losses in Flanders region, whereas a trade agreement could limit these to 10,000 jobs. The UK is the fourth export market for Flanders with €27.66 billion and the Flemish road transport sector ... will be very hard hit due to changes in customs, free movement of people, potentially deviating rules on health and safety, etc. Ireland is among the most concerned, because of its extensive and deep economic links to the UK. Ireland imports 89 per cent of its oil products and 93 per cent of its gas from the UK. Since 2007, there has been a single electricity market for the whole island and “post Brexit, this single market will be affected and Irish energy security may be weakened.”
 
The worst emerging scenario would be of Migration. UK has been the most preferred destination. A major percentage of work force that UK employs is from the EU countries. Brexit will affect tourism in a major way. In fact neither EU nor UK are willing to part. The UK is in favour of continuing to have access to the EU market. It would be wiser for both of them to agree to extend the period by two or more additional years. This can be done by unanimous agreement. The political compulsions that forced David Cameron to press for Brexit no more exists now. The Brexiteers may not agree to but the fact is the demand for “leave” has acquired the nature of nationalism. Boris represents the rightist forces and for him Brexit represents the aspiration of the rightist forces.
 
This in fact is the major reason for EU to move cautiously. There also is a fear that any extension of UK membership under Article 50 (3) could be exploited by the UK to block other EU reforms and/or to improve the UK’s position in the competition between the EU and the UK post Brexit. During the Conservative leadership contest, Johnson had declared that the chances of leaving the EU without an agreement were “a million to one against.” The rightist forces represented by Tories in the existing situation want to use the Brexit for winning the next elections. Probably May would have continued to be Prime Minister, if she had not failed to actualise the result of the referendum which led to the rise of the Brexit party, which came first in the elections for the European Parliament. Realising that the party is facing an existential crisis, the conservatives dumped May and replaced her with someone who could see off the threat posed by Brexiteers.
 
Once in power, Boris brought about changes in the Cabinet so that it is run by Brexit true believers and not by those who backed remain in the referendum. One thing is absolutely clear that pro-EU parties in UK will use European elections as ‘soft referendum.’ It is worth taking cognisance of the statement of Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, who holds the view that there is no legal impediment to the UK leaving Europe. Meanwhile, UK media has launched a campaign to foil the Brexit.
 
‘The Guardian’ has appealed the Parliament to take control. It said; “This is a democratic emergency. MPs and other elected bodies must sit in August to stop Boris Johnson’s drive for a no-deal Brexit. What Johnson is doing would be wrong even if he had a majority behind him. But the majority is against him. To take Britain out of the European Union without a deal would be the most wilfully dangerous policy action that any Government of this country has taken in modern times. No deal would materially threaten the economic security of the British people.”
 
Though Ministers continue to mouth the mantra that they would prefer to leave with a deal, no serious effort is being made to achieve one. The Prime Minister and his team were reported at the weekend to be confident that Parliament cannot stop them from crashing out. Conservative MPs, it was said, have been told it is now too late to stop no deal before the October 31 deadline, nearly three months away. Johnson’s aide Dominic Cummings is said to have advised that not even a general election will be allowed to prevent them.