Corona will convalesce, but will our economy?
   Date :03-Apr-2020

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By Hemangi Shinde :
 
Is the worst yet to come or is over? This is the question in the mind of every Indian right now. Is this a mere health pandemic with which time will twirl into an Economic pandemic? It has been more than three months since World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared the COVID-19 outbreak as Public Health Emergency of international concern. Three nations among the five largest economies in the world are facing the worst-ever phase in the history due to this outbreak. In USA, China and India markets are crashing, shares are falling, and unemployment rate is growing. Everything is going hay-wire. The world has come to a stand-still.
 
Everyone locked up in home and losing their mind thinking when would there be normalcy and how things will resume. Will things go back to normal swiftly or will we find ourselves in a situation like one or two decade back in terms of economy. India’s stock market has crashed by 35 % in just two months. More than 3.3 million people in USA claimed that they are unemployed (Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics). Germany’s finance Minister committed suicide, just by speculating what is coming for the country. In India, we were talking about becoming a five trillion economy by 2025 and today we are just two point nine trillion, while China today already is a fourteen point four trillion dollar economy. So, guess who is going to suffer more.
 
 
India needs to create nearly 10 million jobs every year to absorb people moving into the working-age population, besides those that are already unemployed. Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, following observations have been made (Source: Economic Times): Health and Tourism Industry which employees 4 crore people is expecting 12 lakhs job losses in 12 months. Aviation Industry employees 3.5 lakh people and is a 2.2 lakh crore industry is expecting a revenue loss of 4200 crore just in the month of April and June. Retail Industry which is a 59 lakh crore industry and employees 4.6 crore people is expecting 1.1 crore job lose in just 3 upcoming months.
 
 
Restaurants which employees 73 lakh people is expecting 14 lakh job lose in coming months. The Ride Hailing industry (Ola, Uber etc) which was booming and making huge profits until recently is expecting a 50% drop in business which currently has 5 million driver partners. How will the government manage the demand-supply economics for employment in India? It is just few months and ages long concern regarding border war, civil war, cyber war, nuclear war etc are of no relevance. Religious conflicts, political debates, mob lynching, hindu-muslim bias has become insignificant. Everyone is just concerned about how to put bread on the platter.
 
Probably this will make humans understand at the end what is all that matters. As the figures suggest there is going to be huge slash in employment, there are very high chances that in order to be able to survive and feed the family, people may indulge in unlawful activities. Rest could be thought off. If right actions are not taken at this very moment and if we don’t multiply our efforts to restore the economy, things will be devastating and we will travel back to the time, where we did not had, all that we have today.
 
Every resource needs to be used to the optimum level wisely. Everyone in sectors including Public, Private, Household, Tertiary etc. needs to act and quickly. So far government has come up with relieving announcements to curb the economic impact of corona. If everything goes as how it is announced, we will be able to fight the crisis. If it does not, it will prove to be the final nail in the coffin. Health impact of the virus can be curtailed in a year or two, as till then we will have the vaccinations developed. But it is not so with the Economic impact of the virus, as it is not about one-time support from the government. It will take months and years to rise above the crisis or just stabilize. n