WHILE several uncertainties over climate outcomes have been reduced by continual advancements in studies, that have eased the task of policymakers, experts still warn urgent reduction in CO2 levels is essential for the sustainability of life on the planet in the long term.

 

While soothsayers and hope mongers have a reason to cheer as weather extremities in the near future have almost been ruled out by a recent study, pessimists are skeptic and fear that there is no magic wand which can end the problem of climate change and its possible outcomes on our lives, which are going to come sooner or later. We can at best buy time but act we have to in any case.

 

There is, however, no denying the fact that CO2 emission is a major problem globally and its constant surge is going to pose grave risks to lives, even if the deadline is extended. No one can claim that CO2 emissions can be allowed and it will have no major impact on the future of the planet.

 

“The main message is that unfortunately, we can’t expect that luck will save us from climate change,” says Reto Knutti, professor of climate physics at ETH Zurich’s Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science. Until now, the United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change has estimated a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from its pre-industrial level of about 280 parts per million (ppm) has a 66 per cent chance of heating the planet by between 1.5C to 4.5C.

 

In May, atmospheric CO2 reached 417ppm and is rising by about 2.5ppm per year. This certainly is a cause of concern because even a 1.5C rise in global atmospheric temperature can melt glaciers, raise sea levels, cause large-scale flooding, drown several cities, and maroon millions, also leading to the loss of revenues to the tune of millions of dollars.

 

India and China are among the world’s biggest contributors to fossil fuel emissions with India’s carbon dioxide discharge increasing by 7-8 per cent every year. We are producing around 40 billion tonnes of CO2 annually. Climate change and deforestation are two major phenomena that are also pushing tropical species towards extinction. According to a study, only 38 per cent of tropical forest is ‘wildlife-friendly’ as a result of deforestation. Between 1880 and 2013, India lost about 40 per cent of its forest cover. What’s worse, 60 per cent of forests are in poor health with inadequate regeneration status.

 

We urgently need to fund mechanisms to stop forest loss whilst also investing in reforestation in places where deforestation has already been most severe. Though many things may not be distinctly visible around and one may not be able to claim a certain prediction but the certainty of the environment’s decisive degradation over the last three decades cannot be disputed.

 

We have seen rainfalls getting erratic, we have seen droughts increasing, floods getting more menacing; we have seen untimely rains, rising temperatures, heatwaves, drying up riverbeds, shrinking groundwater levels, vanishing species, rising man-animal conflicts, newly developing viruses threatening humanity, failing antibiotics and TB and malaria germs getting drug-resistant. All these are marked signs of things going wrong.

 

The quality and quantity of crops will decline due to higher temperatures, drought, and flooding. Heat stress could cause average dairy production to fall. UN resolutions, Kyoto Protocol, Paris Accord, global deals and treaties and high sounding words from the glorified pulpits all end in blames and counter blames and squabbles. The promises are forgotten and human greed goes on fleecing the little-left resources of a bleeding earth in the triumphant dance of ‘progress’. The need of the hour is for everyone to do whatever possible in whatever small measure to stem the crisis fast snowballing into a catastrophe.

 

There has been systematic plunder of our forests to make way for businesses run by politicos and business houses. Lesser trees directly mean heating up of the atmosphere, with rising levels of carbon dioxide, monoxide, and other gases. Trees take in CO2 and release oxygen in the air. With lessening of the number of trees, we have naturally more carbon dioxide in the air that leads to global warming, melting of glaciers, flooding, and droughts.

 

Greenhouse gases reduce the rate at which the Earth’s surface loses infrared radiation to outer space. Because one way to increase the temperature of anything is to reduce its rate of energy loss to its surroundings, this makes the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere warmer than they would otherwise be. It is the CO2 that is increasing, and there are no trees to bring it down. No prizes for guessing, trees take years to grow and just minutes to be hacked. Thus the proportion of growth versus deaths would always be skewed. The way industrialisation and rapid urban sprawl are eating into the greenbelts, it is hard to catch up even with Herculean plantation programmes and global warming is inevitable by the way we are living.

 

Nature is fragile and on the brink. We have long misplaced out priorities and undermined the needs of wildlife to satiate our greed for more. Today, we have everything for our luxury and convenience, but what we forget is, without human’s constructive engagement with nature, nothing is going to survive for long.

 

The only silver lining is India has taken a lead role in combating air pollution, including bilateral and multilateral cooperation, on best practices for the effective implementation of India’s National Clean Air Programme (NCAP). Launched in January 2019, the NCAP aims to reduce fine particulate (PM2.5) and particulate (PM10) by 20 per cent –30 per cent by 2024. In 2015, India initiated the International Solar Alliance, a global coalition of nations tackling climate change by leveraging the power of solar energy, and has increased its vehicle emissions standards to BS6.

 

In 2017, the Centre announced that from 2030, all new vehicles sold in the country would be electric. Implementing these initiatives can prevent more than 2.5 million premature deaths from air pollution every year. India’s renewable energy ambition is to reach 275 GW by 2027.

 

According to the Global Energy Monitor, India in 2018 permitted less than 3 GW of coal-fired power plant for construction, compared to an annual average of 31 GW from 2008 to 2012 and 13 GW from 2013 to 2017. India added more solar and wind power capacity in 2018-19 than thermal power capacity.

 

Alternate energy is the only way to go for and India has already taken a big lead in transforming from a conventional renewable energy-based system to innovative non-renewable energy format. The NDA II Government has given the right impetus to clean energy initiatives. Before 2014, things in the direction moved slowly and we had been able to set up a very modest infrastructure for non-conventional energy production which has seen a quantum jump in the recent past.

 

There is still a huge potential in India to harness wind, solar and nuclear energy. Thermal power is an obsolete and regressive proposition and there can be no going back on it. E-vehicles have to be promoted on a war-footing and use of personal petrol or diesel-based vehicles has to be discouraged by levying taxes etc. Side by side, the public transport network too needs to be strengthened.

 

Green buildings must be incentivised. No big establishment must be allowed to set shop without planting an ample number of trees on the premises. Cutting trees for any purpose must invite a heavy penalty.

 

Mindless construction must be stopped. Environment protection needs to be taken up as a national movement by all stakeholders including leaders, political parties, NGOs, experts, and members of the general public because the environment is a multi-dimensional sector needing a multi-pronged approach.

 

There is no one fit for all solutions and we need the brains and hands of different sectoral experts to give shape to a national plan. We have moved haphazardly with random selections of priority areas but there has not been a comprehensive plan for an all-round action that effectively handles and resolves multiple environmental issues. The Government needs more investment in technology and innovation.

 

By the way, traditional banes like red tape delays, corruption, unaccountability, etc. have to be weeded out. A time-bound roadmap has to be chalked and no excuses for delays must be admitted. This is the time for us because this Government can do these.