NEW battle-lines are being drawn as some officials who fled Kabul after the Taliban take-over have formed a Government of Afghanistan in exile. This development has added a fresh twist to the situation that is getting complicated by the day. Even as the Taliban forms a sort-of interim Government in Kabul, a parallel Government in exile has emerged on the horizon. This obviously means that this time, the fight against the Taliban is going to be fought on an altogether different ground that is fully unfamiliar to the terror outfit. It is quite fathomable that many countries may recognise this Afghanistan Government in exile, formed understandably and believably in Switzerland. For, the formal announcement of this new development has come from the Afghan Embassy in Switzerland. By count had the Taliban expected the situation take such a turn. The announcement has said unequivocally that the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is the only legitimate Government of the country and has been elected by the votes of the people and no other Government can replace a legitimate one, quoting ‘Khaama News’.

 

The press release of the announcement also states quite assertively that Afghanistan has been occupied by external factors. But the decision to form a Government in exile came after detailed consultations with the elders of the country. The statement also adds emphatically that Vice President Mr. Amrullah Saleh would lead the country following the escape of President Ashraf Ghani and his rupture with Afghan politics. The importance of this development can hardly be overstated. For, it marks a new point of resistance to the Taliban operating from international soil and seeking global recognition to the formation. Considering the uncouth manner of the Taliban, it may not be preposterous to expect for many countries to accept this Government in exile as the true representative of Afghanistan. In other words, this may be interpreted as a possible joint international effort to checkmate the Taliban in every which the way. As the fight travels across the national borders, the Taliban may not have the clue to its effective counter. There is no doubt that the very formation of the Taliban is a multi-lateral activity -- making it a very loosely formed conglomerate whose sense of unity is as suspect as its loyalty to the cause.

 

In every likelihood, the Taliban is being manipulated by some external forces that may not have anticipated any such move as the formation of a Government of Afghanistan in exile. A major fall-out of this development may come in the form of blockage of international help to the Taliban-controlled country. If a good number of countries recognises the government in exile, then a lot of international help to the Taliban-controlled country, too, may get blocked, starving Afghanistan. Some humanitarian aid may still come in, but its limitation can well be understood. If this turns out to be true, then the Afghan situation may assume an altogether different hue. The Taliban will never know how to counter this assertion. In that case, it will have to rely more on a country like China -- that is plush with resources -- and a neighbour like Pakistan that is itself under severe constraints of its own creation. If that happens, the Taliban’s ability of a fight back will be severely restricted. Initially, the United States did try to play a double-game in Afghanistan -- silently backing the Taliban, and openly mouthing big philosophy of democracy for international consumption. Subsequently, however, the US seemed to have realised its folly and therefore agreed to change its approach, though clad in smart words. Going by indications, the US is not likely to go along with the Taliban’s anti-democratic manner and anti-human-rights method. With India’s position on the issue of legitimacy of who rules Afghanistan becoming more acceptable to most countries, the government in exile may start getting much support overtly and overtly. By those standards, the fight against the Taliban regime may assume a different hue and direction. Though the fight may be tough, it may even bring the Taliban to its knees if enough international pressure builds up against the regime in due course of time. The Government in exile may trigger that process.