NO SOONER had the USA and NATO announced the unconditional withdrawal of its troops by the twentieth anniversary of 9-11 attack on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon, rattling the shaky-from-the beginning peace talks, than the diplomatic circles specialising the nebulous geopolitics in the SAARC region had begun keenly awaiting Chinese entry into the Afghan peace process.

 

It will be advantage Pakistan and adversarial to India. But India has to assert itself in filling the vacuum along with Russia and China -- a diplomatic and economic compulsion, apart from strategic imperative. India has popular support among the peace-loving Afghan people who can’t forget the traumatic days under the Taliban regime. Over 2,300 US servicemen and women have been killed and more than 20,000 injured, along with more than 450 Britons and hundreds more from other nationalities in the 20-year war. More than 60,000 Afghan security forces were nearly twice the casualties of civilians. The estimated financial cost to the US taxpayer is close to a staggering US$1 trillion. It was the biggest foreign policy-blunder of Washington after the Vietnam war. The US withdrawal is a compulsion. Now with China offering to host Afghan peace talks, a new act in the global theatre has begun. China has endorsed the leading role for President Ghani-led Government in Kabul. Beijing has already beefed up its diplomacy between Pakistan and Afghanistan, following US President Joe Biden’s announcement of the US troops withdrawal from the war-torn country.

 

The Chinese Government is set to mend fences with the Afghan Government while keeping the Talibans in good humour. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said during a media briefing, “China is ready to facilitate intra-Afghan talks and will provide necessary conditions for negotiation in China.” Significantly enough, exactly a month back, Pakistan urged the Taliban to remain engaged in the Afghan peace process after the Islamic terrorist group stated it would shun summits about Afghanistan until exit of foreign forces. Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in an interview with Reuters in Abu Dhabi said the Taliban would “take their own decisions but we will do whatever we can to convince them that it is in their national interest to remain engaged.” No less meaningful was the tweet by spokesman of the Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Naeem, during the peace negotiations in Istanbul. “Until all foreign forces completely withdraw from our homeland, the Islamic Emirate will not participate in any conference that shall make decisions about Afghanistan.” The reaction was obvious. Snapping fingers at the IEA spokesman, Saeed Azami tweeted, “Brutality and barbarism in the name of Islam are forbidden. The Taliban have made Islam a monster.

 

Islam is the religion of science and knowledge, mercy and compassion and forgiveness, and moderation, but the Taliban show Islam as a religion of violence and terror.” China’s relations with Afghanistan remained intact excepting the ten year-period of the pro-Soviet Governments (1979-1989) that Beijing refused to recognise. Interestingly, China remained officially inactive in Afghanistan during the Taliban era, but had secret negotiations with the ultra-Islamic regime. When the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s, it had relations with the anti-Chinese terrorist East Turkestan Islamic Movement which was then allowed to operate camps in the country. Obviously, Beijing supported the first round of UN sanctions against the Taliban regime. The so-called Communist rulers, driven by a mix of security concerns and economic factors, sought to improve its ties with the movement. It began believing in the late 1990s that the best way to manage the potential terrorist threat from Afghanistan was to engage with the Taliban and strike a deal. Diplomatic relations would also open the potential for trade. In 1999, China opened economic ties and launched flights between Kabul and Urumqi. Even the Chinese Ambassador in Pakistan had a meeting with Mullah Omar, former Taliban envoy to Pakistan, Abdul Salam Zaeef, who directly maintained relations with the then Chinese Ambassador in Islamabad, Zhang Chengli. After 9/11, Islamabad detained Zaeef.

 

However, Rustam Ali Seerat Research Intern, Institute of Chinese Studies, is of the view that “the Sino-Pak relation is controversial within Afghan political discourses.” Ahmad Saidi, an Afghan political activist, believes that China-Pakistan relations will influence China’s decisions and make its peace initiatives ineffective. He argues that Pakistan will use the opportunity to empower the pro-Pakistani political forces and secure its own influence in the future. Former Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, motivated China to play a more active role in Afghan-Taliban peace talks. However, after his presidency, his spokesman warned current President Ashraf Ghani’s Government of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence-led negotiations. They argue that Pakistan uses China’s benevolent intentions instrumentally to further its own interests. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is upbeat over the entry of China into the Afghan scenario. This year marks the 70th anniversary of establishment of Pakistan-China diplomatic ties, bilateral relations and vaccine co-operation. He congratulated Chinese Premier Le Keqiang and the Chinese leadership in a tweet over successful landing of Chinese spacecraft on Mars, which showed rising technological prowess of China.

 

The Pak PM emphasised that with collective and tireless efforts over the years, Pakistan and China had transformed their relationship into an “All-Weather Strategic Co-operative Partnership”. The USA and Afghanistan allege that the insurgents have sanctuaries in Pakistan, with military-run Intelligence service lending support, although Islamabad denies all this. How China will handle problems alike is to be awaited. Several years ago, a columnist in an Afghan newspaper ‘Daily Etilaat Roz’ stated: “We want peace but not at any cost.” Running after Taliban would not bring them to the negotiation table. However, most of Afghan political forces support China’s initiative for peace talks while sounding a word of caution that Pakistan’s endeavour to influence the negotiations with Taliban would be frustrating. But it will not be easy for Pakistan to rid itself of economic burden of sheltering Afghan refugees, its diplomatic and economic camaraderie notwithstanding. It hosts close to 3 million Afghan refugees and economic migrants, built 90 per cent of a fence along its disputed 2,500 km border with Afghanistan, hopefully be completed by September, according to the Pak Foreign Minister. Diplomatic circles keep a watch on the Russian role in the peace negotiations. Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in Pakistan to discuss peace efforts relating to Afghanistan. He held talks with the Pak PM and Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa. Islamabad too wants Moscow to be involved. Pakistan and Russia “are working together in the Afghan peace process,” said Qureshi. (IPA)