THE intensity and frequency of cyclones have drastically increased in India in the last 50 years. The western coast, which was considered less vulnerable till recent times and had an average cyclonic storm of one per year, is now seeing around five cyclones a year. The changing trends are consistent with rising temperatures in the Indian Ocean. A 2014 study found that while the temperature of the Indian Ocean rose overall by 0.7 degrees Celsius, the generally colder western the Indian Ocean experienced unexpected warming of 1.2 degrees Celsius in the summer. Additionally, cyclones over the Arabian Sea are also increasing in intensity, driven by rising emissions and temperatures. In Gujarat, as many as 29 districts are exposed to extreme climate events, with districts in the Saurashtra region such as Amreli, Gir Somnath, Junagadh and Porbandar being especially vulnerable to intensified cyclones and storm surges, which have increased three-fold between 1970 and 2019. The yearly average of Indian districts affected by cyclones has tripled and the cyclone frequency doubled after 2005. The last 50 years has also recorded a 12-fold surge in the number of associated cyclonic events such as extreme rainfall, floods, sea-level rise, and thunderstorms and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events over the country.

 

These changing patterns are due to micro-climatic changes that are triggered by local climate change drivers such as land-use-surface change, deforestation, encroachments upon wetlands and water bodies. Their unpredictability makes disaster management harder and places severe strain on the State’s economy. Moreover, lack of planning, accountability and discipline further leaves us unprepared and lives exposed to risks. For instance, the Phase-II of the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project, being implemented since January 2015 by the National Disaster Management Agency and State Governments, covers all the west coast States –Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala – and the eastern State of West Bengal. None of the west coast States has met its target for building multi-purpose cyclone shelters under the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project. While Gujarat has built fewer than half of its planned shelters, Maharashtra has built none.

 

West Bengal on the eastern coast, by contrast, has built all its planned shelters. The western States also lag in installing other critical infrastructure such as saline embankments and underground cabling to ensure continued supply of essential services and developing early warning dissemination systems. Gujarat, which bore the maximum fury of the recent cyclone Tauktae, is supposed to build 76 multi-purpose cyclone shelters but has completed fewer than half, with 42 still under construction. In Maharashtra zero shelters have been built against 11 planned under National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project. In Goa, where 12 shelters have been planned, only one has been completed. Kerala, which saw the major loss of lives of fisherfolk during Cyclone Ockhi in 2017, has completed only seven of 17 planned multi-purpose cyclone shelters.

 

Preparedness or rather the lack of it is a chronic drawback that plagues our system. Despite having all the resources to tackle crises, only the lack of proper planning and implementation pushes us over the barrel. However, there are two aspects to these natural calamities. Since they are growing in intensity and frequency, a serious policy shift has to take place on the climate change issue to find out ways to stem the rot. We have to urgently realign our way of life, thought and approach so that we are more concerned and alert towards our immediate environment. If the environment continues the downtrend, no amount of infrastructure, technology or money can save us in the long run. The rapid climatic changes occurring at this time will manifest themselves in more different formats like floods, droughts, fires and quakes and we cannot exactly predict many of them, let alone prepare for them. India is a large and densely populated country which makes people vulnerable and exposed, and immediate relief and rehabilitation are almost impossible to deliver equally well at all places and at all times. Hence, we have to find out ways to keep ourselves safe by being considerate about our environment.

 

That is the first step towards resurrection. Any catastrophic natural occurrence is anyway a big drain on the country’s strained financial resources, which has to be checked. Our unbridled construction activities in eco-sensitive zones for example have ruined the fragile ecosystem in the hills and forest lands, which have left large populations and landscapes vulnerable to an ecological imbalance of grave consequences. We have destroyed our urban water bodies in a big way, we have dammed rivers and destroyed their natural flow, we have exploited the natural mines without thinking of the consequences, we have denuded hills of green and flattened natural forests, we cause unmanageable pollution from our vehicles and factories, we have left our rivers and lakes polluted beyond redemption, our carbon footprint is rising, we have unplanned urban sprawls with little attention towards adequate greenery for a conducive life. Over several decades this dance of destruction has continued before weather extremes caught us napping. So much audacious expansion of a skewed development model was bound to have its after-effects and impact on us and today we are face to face with the worst due to the wrongs we supported, promoted and accepted. It is time to urgently reverse the trend and redraw the development model for a more sustainable setup, though such a thing is still a far cry in a country like India where files move slow and often get stuck in bureaucratic or legal hurdles.

 

The same lacunae hit our preparedness model. Now after Tuaktae blindsiding the western coast, Yaas is ravaging the east. With two superstorms in a week, that too in the pandemic season, India has a tough management challenge to surmount, even as the holes in the boat are increasing. It is time for the Government to dump the older models and chalk out new strategies to face the new problems. We are shifting towards green energy and other environment-friendly measures at the macro level but the focus should be equally on micro-level imbalances and the key is time, which we are running short of. The processes have to be rolled out in quick time so that before long we have the coordinates bang in place and further catastrophic occurrences are minimised and the least damage to life and property is done. By the way, the policy shift is rapidly happening in last 6-7 years but on the ground, the implementations have to be fast and effective.