THE battle against COVID-19 has become tougher in Kerala. The dubious distinction the State has gained of being the best performer and having the worst in new cases of infection. For Kerala, the second wave is hardly over, but the third wave is already predicted to strike the country anytime this month. There is clearly a lesson to be learnt for all the States in the country because the situation in Kerala indicates the level of preparedness needed to stamp out the pandemic, which all the States of the country are lacking at present. Kerala became the epicentre of the pandemic with identification of the first COVID-19 patient in India on January 30, 2020, and remained a hotspot for about a month. However, by March, about half a dozen States were reporting more cases than Kerala. Soon thereafter, the whole country was reeling under the first wave. Kerala managed to control the situation by enhancing testing, tracing, and treating patients by involving the grassroots level networks and kept the death lower than compared to several other States.

 

The first wave peaked on October 13 when there was only 8764 daily cases were registered. It came down to only 1549 on March 29, 2021, and then started rising with the second wave that peaked on May 12, registering 43,529 new cases. By June 28, the new cases substantially reduced and registered only 8,063 cases. It was thought that the second wave was brought under control but it was a false notion. The new cases started rising again and reached 20, 772 on July 30, 2021. The battle against the second wave in the State has just become tougher, and it is a matter of great concern that the State that has only 3 per cent share in country’s population is reporting over 50 per cent of new cases by August 3, 2021. The State has recorded so far 3.4 million infections and about 17,000 deaths so far, and the positivity rate is hovering above 10 per cent for a month. Is Kerala not performing well in the battle? It is a pertinent question that must be answered for several reasons including for the assessment of our future requirement for the battle that has become tougher in the State. Kerala is testing more than double the people per million compared to the rest of the country. It has enabled the State in capturing one out of every two infections compared to other States which are catching one out of 30 infections.

 

Kerala has somehow been able to keep the infection under much control which is even reflected in sero-survey result that show only 43 per cent people above the age of six in Kerala were exposed to the infection compared to 68 per cent at country level. Despite the disproportionate rise in infection, the hospital facilities in Kerala have not been overwhelmed Half of the COVID-19 beds in the hospitals are free. Fatality rate in the State is only a third of India’s nationwide estimate. The State is also not being blamed for underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in large numbers as other States are being suspected. As for vaccinations, the State has vaccinated about 40 per cent of its people, which is much more than national level of 26.9 per cent for first dose. All these indicate the COVID-19 virus has become more difficult to be stamped out. Since a large number of people remain still vulnerable, the State may be heading towards more stringent lockdowns and containment measures.

 

Kerala needs to put greater efforts to control the second wave, prevent the third wave, and be ready for the fight against the third wave if it strikes. As for the country, we must keep in mind the Kerala experience to enhance the level of preparedness to prevent and prepare for the third wave. India recorded 30,549 new cases of infection and 422 deaths in the last 24 hours as per the Ministry of Health’s bulletin on August 3, pushing the national tally to 3,17,26,507 infections and 4,25,195 deaths so far. The matter of concern is that the active cases have increased to 4,04,958 which is 1.28 per cent of the total infections. It means the pressure on our medical facilities is to continue. The national recovery rate is 97.38 per cent, daily positivity rate is 1.85 per cent while the weekly positivity rate is 2.39 per cent. Given the huge vulnerable population, these figures are still at disturbing level.

 

Government is still struggling to ramp up the production of vaccines doses to meet its target of vaccinating all adults by the year-end. As the threat of the third wave looms large, the Centre has asked 10 States - Maharashtra, Kerala, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Mizoram, Assam, Manipur, and Meghalaya - to consider imposing stricter curbs in 46 districts of the country where the positivity rate is above 10 per cent. Apart from this, 53 districts are showing positivity rate between 5 and 10 per cent. As many as 14 States have been recording a steady rise in daily COVID-19 infections for the last few weeks. Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and J&K have also registered surge of 64 per cent, 61 per cent and 26 per cent respectively. Keeping this trend and the Kerala experience in mind, India should prepare for a more challenging battle ahead, with ramping up vaccination and hospital facilities. There also must not be any laxity is observing safety measures and enforcing them, since the trend might be a signal for approaching third wave. (IPA)