By Dr. Gyan Pathak 

 

UNION Budget 2023-24 has a greater responsibility of protecting India’s workforce at a time when they are at high risk of being forced into accepting lower quality jobs, as warned by ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) Trend 2023, large scale job cuts is adding into the woes of the employed, unemployment rate have been rising, and job opportunities are set to shrink considerably. It is because, Indian Economic growth projections have been revised downwards for 2023 and likely to be so revised further, given deteriorating domestic and global conditions and faster than anticipated monetary tightening as per IMF, household consumption will be held back by slow recovery of the labour market and by high inflation, as warned by the World Bank.

Working age population in India is above 90 per cent (about 126 crore) of the total population of the country which is likely remain above 87 per cent by 2030, as WESO Trend 2023 has estimated. However, as per CMIE data for December 2022, only 41 crore people were in job, and the unemployment rate was as high as 8.3 per cent. It clearly presents a case for framing of a National Employment Policy, as it was recommended long back in 2013 by Indian Labour Conference, the highest tripartite body of India for labour issues, but the Modi Government has not been interested in it, an attitude that it must change for national interest. In contrast, Modi Government has been pushing for implementation of the four labour codes after subsuming 29 labour laws. These codes were passed in the parliament in 2019 and 2020, and the labour rules are framed at the Centre and in majority of the States and UTs.

PM Modi has labelled it as the biggest and long overdue labour reform in India. Government has said that they are ready to implement these codes, and hence it is expected that the Union Budget 2023-24 may announce its implementation from the next fiscal.

Human resource Industry is expecting rollout of these codes, while joint from to Central Trade Unions have been agitating for their roll back since they find these codes pro-corporate and anti-labour and fearing that these codes will bring modern day slavery for the workforce. This fear must be read with the WESO Trend 2023 warning that workforce in general would be forced into lower quality jobs. Therefore, rolling back these codes would be proper at this time of deteriorating job market as demanded by CTUs, rather than rolling them out. It is recalled that two months ago Central Trade Unions had boycotted the budget consultation exercise in the last week of November, since Union Finance Ministry did not give more than three minutes to every CTU. However, CTUs have sent a letter to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stating their expectations and demand from the Union Budget 2023-24. Demands of the CTUs are worth noting which included taking such policy decisions that could boost demand to invigorate the sagging economy. It would require putting money into the hands of the people. The importance of full social security coverage for the entire workforce lies here. They have demanded increase in allocation of MGNREGA the rural employment guarantee scheme for rural India. Given the higher unemployment rate in the urban India at about 11 per cent in December, the government must announce similar urban employment guarantee scheme for urban areas.

CTUs demands also include giving scheme workers the status of government employees, paying them minimum wages, filling vacant posts, giving up plans to sell PSUs, shelving the Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2022, not privatising Government hospitals, reducing GST burden on common people particularly in fuel and essential commodities, and increasing taxes on corporates and introduction of wealth tax to fund social sector programmes.

Creation of new decent jobs is of utmost importance, which can be possible only through reverting back from profit oriented economic policies to human centered ones, as the UN and ILO has been emphasising since especially since the outbreak of COVID-19.

Informalisation of the job market is on the rise, and AITUC has said that it has reached now to 97 per cent of all jobs, who have no social security coverage. It should also be noted that above 81 crore people have been surviving for the last three years on 5kg of free foodgrains per month. Union Budget 2023-24 must create jobs for them or provide full social security coverage.

The high level of unemployment shows that all the earlier schemes of the Modi Government towards job creation and improving the labour market have failed which included PLI Scheme, Make in India, ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’, etc. It is imperative therefore for the Finance Ministry to announce correction measures in the Union Budget 2023-24.

To bring the job market back on track Modi Government does not only need human centric development policies, but also to reverse its present policy to promote gig or informal jobs to create decent jobs with full social security coverage. (IPA)