By Girish Linganna 

 

IN A significant development toward easing the ongoing conflict in Gaza, a meeting took place on Thursday at an elegant white-domed palace in Qatar. The Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani, hosted the spy chiefs of the United States and Israel, namely CIA Director William J. Burns and Mossad chief David Barnea. This gathering marked a hopeful moment after a month of intense, behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Qatar, despite its small size, played a substantial role in mediating discussions. Following the meeting, the White House announced a daily four-hour ceasefire to facilitate humanitarian relief, with the potential for a hostage exchange in the future. The Prime Minister explained his involvement in the intricate and evolving negotiations during an extensive interview on Wednesday, conducted in the very palace where the Intelligence chiefs convened the following day. He remarked, “This marks a positive initial stride that we aspire to strengthen in the days ahead. We are optimistic that it can pave the way for a more enduring and sustainable resolution.” Thursday’s progress involved an agreement for regular humanitarian breaks, aiming to alleviate the severe hardships faced by Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

 

This was a partial response to global calls for a ceasefire. Israeli reports emphasised facilitating the evacuation of Palestinians to southern Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likely recognised that without some concession, Israel could jeopardise recent diplomatic strides with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, along with risking the unwavering support received from the United States for the war against Hamas. What could happen next is an agreement for Hamas to release over 100 foreign civilian hostages and the Israeli women and children abducted on October 7. In return, more than 100 Palestinian children and women reportedly held in Israeli prisons would gain freedom. However, negotiations for the hostage release are at a standstill, as Israel insists that Hamas releases captives in Gaza first. The hostage situation is more intricate than what was previously shared, as per Qatari and US officials. Some captives might be held by groups other than Hamas, and finding them in the complex network of caves beneath Gaza and securing their release might necessitate a pause in the fighting, lasting at least three days, possibly longer, as informed Qatari officials suggest. Mohammed, who also serves as the Foreign Minister, has the delicate task of mediating in the ongoing conflict. At first glance, it might appear an unlikely role, as Qatar often faces criticism from supporters of Israel for hosting Hamas leaders and allowing positive media coverage of the group. However, insights from the Qatari Prime Minister, supplemented by discussions with other high-ranking Qatari and US officials, reveal that the reality is much more intricate.

 

The Qatari channel to Hamas, it seems, has been crucial for both Americans and Israelis. Qatar presents a paradox in the Persian Gulf. It shelters Hamas leaders, considered terrorists by the United States and Israel, much like it hosted the Taliban. Despite this, Qatar maintains a strong pro-American stance in its foreign policy, hosting the significant air base at al-Udeid, a key hub for US Central Command. When it comes to Hamas, the straightforward reality is that without Qatar as an intermediary, the United States and Israel would lack a reliable channel to negotiate the release of hostages or engage in any discussions involving the terrorist group. Consequently, chiefs of Mossad, Israel’s Intelligence service, have been frequent visitors to Doha for over a decade. Despite criticisms from some quarters, Qatar seems to have been, in the words of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, “a reliable partner in peacemaking.” Critics of Qatar point to its initial pro-Hamas statement on October 7: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs holds Israel solely responsible for the ongoing escalation due to its ongoing violations of the rights of the Palestinian people.” However, Qatari officials assert that they soon recognised the inaccuracy of this first statement, made before the full details of Hamas’s actions became clear, and subsequently amended it.

 

The Prime Minister was clear. The violence against Israeli civilians on October 7 was “horrific,” he told me. Hamas has consistently stuck to their story since Day One, stating, ‘We didn’t take any civilians. Our mission was to take the soldiers for a prisoner exchange,’” shared a senior Qatari official who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject. He described the situation on October 7 as “a mess,” with “thousands of people jumping the fence and kidnapping people.” A test of the effectiveness of the Qatar-Hamas channel emerged on October 20 with the release of two Americans. The situation appeared poised for a broader release of hostages on October 25. However, two days later, Israel initiated its ground invasion of Gaza, prompting Hamas to withdraw from the deal. Establishing communication has become increasingly challenging. Initially, the Qatari prime minister could reach out to Hamas political leaders in Doha, who would then contact military leaders in Gaza via cellphones. However, Hamas reported that Israeli bombing had destroyed two cell communication nodes, rendering regular calls impossible. The situation exacerbated when Israel temporarily severed all communication channels.

 

The broader challenge, extending beyond the release of hostages, revolves around how the war will conclude and who will govern Gaza “the day after.” The Prime Minister of Qatar holds a pessimistic outlook. The preferable situation involves a single government overseeing both Gaza and the West Bank. A transition from the current state to this unified governance would be necessary. However, I’m uncertain whether the countries in the region would be willing to engage in such a process given the extent of destruction and loss of life,” he elaborated. The process of transitioning could be facilitated if the Palestinian Authority expresses its willingness to play a role in governing Gaza post-Hamas, contingent on the United States renewing its commitment to a two-state solution.(IPA) (The author is a Defence, Aerospace & political analyst based in Bengaluru.)