THE world has seen two ceasefires coming into effect in different parts in the last few days with brittleness written in bold letters on its future. In the Middle-East, the United States and a band of other countries have managed to bring Israel and Hamas for a peace deal, ending a long-stretched bloody conflict. In Asia, Qatar has made Pakistan and Afghanistan sit across the negotiations table and agree for a truce after heightened hostilities in the last few days snuffed out many civilian lives. Yet, uncertainty hovers over the future of these ceasefire deals given the deep-rooted animosity ruling the minds of every stakeholder of these agreements.

 

Fear of an unprovoked escalation lurks in both the regions as the world waits with bated breath. Disturbance has already rocked the Israel-Hamas deal with both sides accusing each other of violating the deal. A sudden attack by Israeli Defence Forces two days ago in the Gaza strip has forced the US to rush its officials for immediate intervention. Peace is walking on a thin layer of ice in the region even as the Israelis and Palestinians await clarity on their shared future according to the terms agreed in the historic peace agreement. The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, too, is on the verge of a fresh eruption after the continued terrorist attacks in the restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region bordering Afghanistan. Pakistan has stopped the air strikes after the peace deal was brokered in Doha but the death of civilians in those two strikes in Kabul has rankled the Taliban. Even the slightest provocation can blow the lid off the truce agreement, making other countries in the region including India wary of the consequences of a war in the immediate neighbourhood.

 

The tide has clearly turned for Pakistan which never expected theTaliban to turn against it after assuming power in August 2021. The Taliban’s return has reverse-leveraged for Islamabad much to its chagrin. Situation has worsened to such a level that Pakistan is not averse to using its air force to bomb Afghan cities.The two air strikes killing many civilians and three upcoming cricketers have shown that relations between the two neighbours have touched nadir. It is an anti-climax for Pakistan after the support it gave to Taliban right from its inception. Pakistan expected the Taliban to remain loyal to its military establishment. But after taking over reins of Afghanistan following the departure of American troops in 2021, Taliban have moved ahead with a renewed strategy ruled by independent thinking of its new generation fighters. The old guard was a client of Pakistan’s ISI but deep contradictions and overbearing nature of Pak army generals have shaped the next generation’s departure from that policy.

 

The Taliban now seeks validation as a State instead of remaining a puppet of the Rawalpindi-based rulers. The key factor behind the change in Afghanistan’s outlook towards Pakistan is the emergence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as a major threat to Islamabad. The TTP is ideologically aligned to the Afghan Taliban and opposes merger of its tribal belt with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The success of Taliban in Afghanistan has inspired theTTP to increase attacks on Pakistani forces targeting the tribal belt. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has witnessed a dramatic surge in militant attacks with over 2,000 people getting killed this year in militancy-related violence.

 

Pakistan has started to feel the heat and the recent air strikes were to target the TTP which, Islamabad says, is being sheltered by Afghanistan. Pakistan is also furious with the Taliban leaning towards India for bilateral and trade relations. The air strikes on Kabul coincided with the visit of Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to New Delhi. The situation is bound to remain volatile as it directly involves India. The tide is turning.