The Waiting Game
   Date :07-Aug-2025
distinct view
 
By Rahul Dixit : 
 
From the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War to the 1998 nuclear tests in Pokhran and to the latest purchase of S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missiles from Russia, India did not mind the US stare or sanctions. From all these phases, India has emerged stronger and powerful, leveraging its geostrategic position in South Asia with aplomb. 
 
MORNINGS at the Oval office these days are full of dramatic twists and turns as a clueless Head of State goes berserk with his favourite policy gun, spraying tariff bullets at anyone and everyone with a false notion that bullying will buy him supreme power. The charade of being a superpower in a rapidly transforming global order still weighs heavy on the psyche of the President of the United States, Donald Trump. He is not even sparing strategic allies while settling scores with nations believed to have harmed American interests. The varying tariffs reflect the intensity of Trump’s personal hatred for these countries which are seeking their deserving share in international hierarchy. However, the whim of tariff terror that Trump is seeking to impose America’s waning dominance is a bad idea in the long run. The warning bells are already tolling with stiff resistance being put up by many countries, including a bold India, to the tariff threats. Trump has clearly overplayed his hand.
 
The measured, calculated and straightforward response to Trump’s latest tariff warning by India serves as a prudent response to the threats stemming from America’s hollow thinking. New Delhi coolly exposed the hypocrisy of the Americans as regards to business with Russia, with facts and figures which cannot be denied. That Trump had to take cover of “I don’t know about it” when confronted on the business the US is doing with Russia while sanctioning India on buying Russian oil underscores the worthlessness of the American thinking. India’s response calling out the double standards of the US is a tight slap on the haughty face of a country which is still living the delusional dream of bossing over the entire world.
 
The US and a majority of European nations never ceased their business interests with Russia after the military conflict broke out with Ukraine. Despite sanctions imposed on Russian goods, the US continued importing material on the sly while preaching other countries on their decision to buy Russian oil. Between January and May this year, American imports from Russia have risen by 23 per cent. It has allowed domestic companies to apply for a waiver on importing Russian uranium and palladium till 2028 despite a ban. The data comes from Trump’s own US International Trade Commission report. It says, America imported Russian fertilisers worth 806 million dollars in the first five months of 2025. It is a 21 per cent increase from last year and 60 per cent higher than the same period in 2021.
 
Uranium imports surged 28 per cent year-on-year to 596 million dollars, nearly 150 per cent higher than in 2021. Similarly, the European Union, too, has been guilty of practising double standards on the issue. In 2024, the EU traded goods worth 67.5 billion euros with Russia, surpassing India’s total trade with Moscow. European imports of Russian LNG also hit a record 16.5 million tonnes that year, higher than pre-war levels. While Trump is chastising India on its oil and defence trade with Russia, he is blissfully unaware of what his own government is doing. If the Russia trade is being done with the belief that the world would look the other way to keep the US in good humour, then Trump is clearly harbouring foolish dreams. Countries like India have been doing their homework diligently in anticipation of the circus Trump was set to unveil to the world after the pause on tariffs for 90 days. Tariffs are a necessity for Trump at home despite red-flags by top economists in the US about the danger of high inflation. Obsessed with the idea of pummelling economies on the perceived strength of the American economy, the US President is stretching the fabric of international fabric too far. It can boomerang on Trump if the Americans start feeling the pinch of price rise.
 
The country is already playing with fire by raising debt ceilings to dodge a default. It might cool down the markets but with the spending proposed by the Trump administration, the new ceiling might come fairly early. At the same time, if the higher tariffs on essential goods and pharmaceuticals from India also start affecting domestic prices then it would be a double whammy for Trump’s America. The potential scenario makes it mandatory for India to stay firm on its stand of protecting national interests first. Negotiations on the trade deal can go on but never at the gun-point Trump is aiming to thrust on New Delhi. India must not shun practising its strategic autonomy on buying Russian oil and weapons. India must fight back the pressure tactics without caring for short-term impact on its economy. It is a passing phase and the country has the wherewithal and people’s support to endure the inconvenience. India’s history has many such phases where it decided to take the bull by its horn. From the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War to the 1998 nuclear tests in Pokhran and to the latest purchase of S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missiles from Russia, India did not mind the US stare or sanctions.
 
From all these phases, India has emerged stronger and powerful, leveraging its geostrategic position in South Asia with aplomb. The overall global calculus keeps India largely safe in the current situation as it has cultivated healthy multi-alignments across the world exercising its strategic autonomy. This should be a safeguard enough for the Indian economy to overcome the after-effects of current US misadventure. One important thing the Indian policy-makers must keep in mind is that the Americans have a tendency to come around after making a high-decibel initial fracas. India will do really well to play on this US habit before making its next trade move.