HARDLY a day passes, these days, without spewing a new twist in fate for India. A constant stirring is on in the global affairs, throwing up astonishing surprises, raising new questions about the future trajectory. The blow-hot-blow-cold relations with the United States have become an unending game for India. And there are new issues cropping up in the neighbourhood which can potentially transform the security structure in South Asia. In every such move in the neighbourhood, India stands at the centre with new and emerging threats to deal with. Tackling the tariff bombs being hurled by United States President Donald Trump, India is looking anxiously at the birth of new alliances in the region, forcing a rethink on relations with partners who were supposedly hard backers of New Delhi. The centrepiece of India’s latest worry is the mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The pact has declared that any attack on one country will be treated as an attack on both.

 

The language of the agreement sounds simple with no thrust on a treaty but it changes the security dynamics for India even as it poses a challenge to the diplomatic strategies. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have had close security relations for decades. Pakistani forces have been training the Saudi army for years. But institutionalising these relations with a defence agreement is a serious change in their association. It holds major implications not just for India but also for the US, the Arab world and Israel. Pakistan is the only Muslim nation with nuclear power. With the Pakistani leadership openly claiming that the Saudis will be an integral part of its “nuclear umbrella”, some uneasy questions have cropped up for the world, more so for India.

 

he deal between Riyadh and Islamabad translates into making Saudi Arabia a proxy nuclear power. India is already alarmed with the defence deal between the Gulf nation and Pakistan. The Ministry of External Affairs has stated that India expects Saudi Arabia to keep mutual interests and sensitivities in mind. It is a statement of caution as over the past decade, New Delhi has invested heavily in forming a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia. India is the second largest trading partner with the Gulf kingdom and major buyer of Saudi oil. The co-operation between New Delhi and Riyadh has expanded not only in trade and energy but also in cultural exchanges and counter-terrorism programmes. India expects the kingdom to value these ties while becoming a defence partner of Pakistan despite knowing the hostile relations between the two South Asian neighbours.

 

The worry for India is whether the Saudis would come out in Pakistan’s support in case of a direct Indo-Pak conflict like Operation Sindoor. It is still a guess-work, for, the nature of conflicts between India and Pakistan have remained largely confined to “war on terror”. Operation Sindoor escalated after India’s strikes on terror infra in Pakistan. It was a limited fight where most nations were reluctant to pick any one side. Diplomatic compulsions and trade relations might weigh heavy for Saudi Arabia to get involved in a direct fracas with India in the future too. Yet, the defence pact is of big significance. It connects Pakistan directly to the security situation in the Middle East. The Saudis are seeking Pakistan army’s protection to deal with Israel and Iran. The kingdom is still smarting from the attacks on its oil fields by Iran-backed groups. Its efforts to normalise ties with Israel via the US-initiated Abraham Accords have fallen flat. There is not an iota of chance of forging an Arab-Israel front against Iran. By choosing Pakistan as its security guarantor Riyadh has signalled the top powers that it would chart a separate course. All these developments bring three countries -- China, Turkey and now Saudi Arabia – directly patronising Pakistan in the broader equation for India.

 

They are clearly using Pakistan as the showpiece in their security architecture in the region. For India, the security game has assumed a wider dimension. Pakistan’s willingness to play the errand boy for anyone loosening purse strings makes it a dangerous entity in the region. There is a threat of Pak-backed mercenaries using the opportunity to launch attacks on Indian fronts with funds from Islamabad’s patrons. Adding to the worry is Trump’s desire to wrest back control of the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan. US boots back in Afghanistan will automatically bring Pakistan in the picture. And it brings the Ghazwa-e-Hind brigades back on the Afghan border. New Delhi has a plethora of problems to deal with apart from fighting the Trump tantrums.

 

India has the challenge of maintaining strong relations with Saudi Arabia with the constant fear of security risks arising from the defence pact with Pakistan. Diplomacy has a way of navigating such issues but the growing tendency of nations to embrace protectionism-first might make the job difficult for New Delhi to keep the right balance. With Israel directly in the picture now after the Saudi-Pakistan pact, keeping both the Israelis and Arabs in good humour while guarding security interests will be a tight-rope walk for India’s diplomatic apparatus. Adapting to the changing dynamics is imperative for India. It played smartly while handling situations in Sri Lanka and Nepal. But the Bangladesh lesson must form the core of India’s next moves. The message is clear for New Delhi: Nothing is simple as it seems on the surface. It must prepare for those awkward moments where niceties would need to be kept in the locker and straight-talk would become the only language to deal with aggressors. The game has changed. India needs to change the rules too.