DESPITE the energy truce between Russia and Ukraine, declared on his own by United States President Mr. Donald Trump, oil infrastructure in both countries continue to face increased attacks. Escalating hostilities, especially drone attacks on oil refineries, are disrupting energy security in light of the global fuel shortage and threaten to affect crude oil prices across the world. The situation makes it mandatory for countries making efforts to bring a halt in the conflict to pursue their plans aggressively before things get out of hand for the entire world. This brings into picture the “broadest” truce plan proposed by India as a viable mode to end hostilities and work for future peace. India has proposed a three-part plan aimed at cessation of hostilities. It entails a mutual halt of attacks on energy facilities and other critical infrastructure, uninterrupted movement of grain and energy supplies through Black Sea ports, and an end to attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea.

 

The plan has been welcomed by Ukraine as the “most comprehensive” among the four international initiatives advanced by the United States, Egypt, and Turkiye alongside India. A report by Geopolitical Monitor states that Ukraine Foreign Minister Mr. Andrii Sybiha has welcomed India’s initiative and expressed willingness to go ahead with the plan if Moscow upholds the energy ceasefire. Russia, too, has acknowledged India’s renewed efforts to end the war. This pushes India’s case as a facilitator of negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv as New Delhi makes a calibrated shift from advocacy to interest-driven engagement. India’s position as an approachable friend by both Russia and Ukraine makes it a unique converging point to pursue peace talks. Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi shares warm ties with Russian President Mr. Vladimir Putin and also Ukrainian President Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy. India has a better understanding of the issue and its recent engagements have underlined New Delhi’s willingness to solve the problem that is affecting its own economic calculations. While Mr. Modi has always emphasised on dialogue and diplomacy, his direct message to Mr Putin that this is “not an era of war” also shows that India is game for a negotiated outcome. For both Russia and Ukraine, India presents a perfect platform to initiate steps for weeding out operational problems. A non-attack arrangement is the first move in this direction but there is a question mark over Russia’s support to the ceasefire after it paid no heed to Mr. Trump’s “energy truce” announcement. Moscow has been voicing its reservation for a ceasefire.

 

It wants a complete cessation of military action but on its own terms of territorial gains. Kyiv has shown acceptance of a truce but whether it is open for a talk on Russian claims on its fallen regions is still not clear. It makes India’s position a bit tricky as New Delhi would not want to damage its bilateral relations with any of the two neighbours by opening direct mediation. India needs to be careful with the role of a formal mediator given its close relationship with both parties. Though it hands India a great leverage to reach out to both Russia and Ukraine, there will also be an added pressure from the international community to hammer out a ceasefire. Russia’s position shows that the exercise will need some time and a lot of legroom for New Delhi to make its diplomatic maneuvers. A pause in fighting entails working over many areas such as non-attack arrangements on critical infrastructure and mechanisms to deal with violations. It should also have a clear definition of critical infra and agreed rules to stop targeting commercial shipping. The challenge for India is not only finding a common ground for both Russia and Ukraine to land upon but also to make them exercise restraint when negotiations actually start taking shape. Of course, it will also depend upon how the US warms up to the idea of India’s lead role in ending a war. There are too many considerations for the world to make. However, it cannot sit over the issue for long when both Moscow and Kyiv have shown interest in India’s efforts.