DEMOCRATS are projected to hold an advantage over the Republican Party in five of the seven closely watched Senate races, both US House of Representatives contests and also the race for Georgia Governor, a 2026 Midterm Forecast brief issued by a leading consultancy in campaign and perception management has revealed. As the voting takes place in the US midterm elections on Tuesday, the forecast by Psifos Advisory Group - a division of Newark-based Gateway Group One - gives Democrats an edge in eight of the 10 key races, with Republicans favoured in the remaining two. Among the Senate races, Democratic candidates are expected to be ahead in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan, while Republicans hold an advantage in Iowa and Florida. For every race, the brief states a call, the probability of the other side winning, and the expected two-party vote share. The calls run from ‘Solid’ in Georgia’s Senate race (a 2 per cent chance of an upset) through ‘Tilt’ in Ohio (48 per cent) and Iowa (62 per cent for the Republican).

 

The election forecasting, asserted Psifos, is based on disciplined statistical modelling with a measured, bias-corrected reading of the online conversation. “Four features set this method apart. It starts from evidence, not opinion. Each seat begins from fundamentals: the last presidential vote adjusted for the national mood, incumbency, primary strength and primary turnout. The weights are learned from past races, not set by judgement. Larger and newer polls count more, pollsters with a partisan lean count less, and thin polling is used but flagged,” said Rahul Mehta, Managing Partner at the Psifos Advisory Group. “It reads the online conversation and corrects it. We judge posts for or against each candidate across 12 platforms, correct for each platform’s habitual lean, and compare races with one another. Where the volume is too one-sided to compare fairly, as in Minnesota’s 5th (46 posts about one candidate for every one about the other), we leave the conversation out rather than let it distort the forecast.”