W ORLD markets reacted with a surge, a typical trend they show to anything that United States President Mr. Donald Trump announces on a big crisis. Countries directly affected by the West Asia war, too, heaved a sigh of relief but with a cautious optimism. The halt in US strikes on Iran’s power plants, announced by Mr. Trump, has had its desired effect but it is as temporary as a promise from the POTUS. The pause of five days has begun with an eerie fear of another U-turn by all the parties involved in the latest armed crisis the world has been subjected too. The pause is fragile and the world knows it too well. As is his wont, Mr. Trump again brought a deal in focus, claiming it as the desire of the Iranian leadership.

 

The claim has been promptly refuted by Iran thus exposing the vulnerability of a ceasefire announcement by Mr. Trump. Reports have suggested that there had been attacks on Iran’s energy sites in Isfahan and Khorramshahr hours after Mr. Trump’s announcement of a five-day halt. It aptly sums up the situation in West Asia where the US is finding it extremely hard to wriggle out of a war it had been forced into by a trigger-happy partner. While there have been multiple claimants of becoming mediator between US and Iran, there are also signals of the war escalating further as there are no clear terms of negotiations. The US simply had no goal for this war which, as evidence and circumstances suggest, Israel Prime Minister Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu had wanted desperately to settle old scores with Iran. The US has no roadmap to bring an end to this war and Mr. Trump’s daily flip-flop with contrasting statements is further adding to the problem. In this light, the five-day pause on attacks promised by Mr. Trump has to pass the test of trust. Given his track record, at least during his second term in White House, Mr. Trump can easily change the goalpost and come back harder at Iran. It is still a fluid situation, though the world has welcomed the tone-down in hostilities between the two warring sides.

 

The actual assessment of the situation can be gauged from the blockade of ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have choked the waterway with special concessions only to a few “friendly” countries. That passage, too, comes at a cost decided by Iran. A large number of vessels are still stranded near Hormuz gulf as the US continues to weigh its options, including a military strike on the IRGC commands. So far, the threats have not yielded anything even as Mr. Trump’s call to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) countries was snubbed. In the end, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and the major cause of the hostilities remains unsolved. All the action around this issue can at the most be termed as a desperate attempt to ensure status quo ante. Mr. Trump’s turnaround appears to be a call to assuage growing opposition at home to his decision of entering the war. His ratings have been gradually plummeting, first after the tariff salvos at the world, its reversal by the US Supreme Court, and now by the poorly-thought move to join forces with Israel to attack Iran.

 

The war has significantly affected the American economy and people have now started to feel the heat. With the midterm elections round the corner, Mr. Trump might be wary of a dent to his reputation among his MAGA (Make America Great Again) voter base. The pause, if it holds, might help the confused US President an honourable exit from this mess of his own creation. However, much depends upon the terms of negotiations that Iran will put forth if there is a deal. The resilience shown by Iran has put it in a better place to make an agreement. It will be a difficult exercise for Mr. Trump’s administration, which has a habit of browbeating every party sitting across the table. Moreover, the US still has to get a full backing from Israel to end operations. Mr. Trump’s mess is much bigger than it looks.