WITHIN hours of the two-week ceasefire announced by the United States and Iran, hostilities have resumed on the other side with Israel attacking Lebanon territories. It has resulted in over 300 casualties so far but the biggest casualty of these strikes is likely to the proposed peace talks between Washington and Tehran representatives scheduled in Islamabad. The US-Iran truce now hangs in balance with conflicting statements and developments clouding truth about the ceasefire. As the two-week pause in military action teeters, the world has started to make its move in case of renewed hostilities. The European Union has sprung into action over possible effects of a prolonged blockade of Strait of Hormuz while member-nations have upped the ante for opening of the critical waterway that was shut again by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) within hours of the ceasefire announcement.

 

The peace talks are now walking on thin ice with the danger of a downward spiral lurking over the world yet again. There are still questions over the proposed peace talks in Islamabad between US Vice President Mr. J D Vance and Iran Foreign Minister Mr. Abbas Araghchi after Iran’s envoy deleted his social media post on delegation arrival in Pakistan. It is seen as a signal of Iran withdrawing from the negotiations after Israel’s provocation by targeting Lebanon. To add to the mystery, US officials have gone public about wrong information in the 10-point peace plan that could help end the war. It is total chaos out there as the world awaits a positive outcome and re-start of energy supply chains. The Israel angle was already red-flagged by analysts when US President Mr. Donald Trump announced the 14-day ceasefire hours ahead of planned attack on Iran.

 

Israel was not made part of the proposed peace plan making it amply clear that Prime Minister Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu would continue his aggressive posturing against Iran and its proxies in the neighbourhood. The attack on Lebanon was the most easy way out for Mr. Netanyahu to keep the pot boiling as it was not included in the peace plan. It was a blatant attempt to rile Iran and keep the US in attacking mode instead of going for diplomacy to end the crisis. The plan has worked, for now, with Iran threatening to cancel the fragile ceasefire and the US going back to its raving and ranting about its military power. Reversal of the ceasefire will be an open invitation for Mr. Trump to come out all guns blazing at Iran’s critical infrastructure. Israel will welcome the prospects of such a scenario as Mr. Netanyahu pushes harder to realise his dream of a debilitated Iran without nuclear or military power. It would be a dangerous situation for the entire West Asia if the war continues with the same intensity. The world is already paying for this war heaped upon it by the US-Israel combine with a false notion of being superpowers. Iran’s resilience has badly exposed their technical and military limitations. The war has become a spectacular strategic failure for Mr. Trump even as Mr. Netanyahu basks in the glory of targeting its nemesis for so long.

 

The conflict is a strategic move by Mr. Netanyahu for political survival. He has been highly successful in fulfilling his goal and wants more from the US. The question now for Washington will be to choose between peace and a proxy hostility against Iran. If the peace talks happen as per the schedule, then it will be a great start to bring a permanent end to the war. It will be America’s responsibility to control Israel if the Iran deal goes through in the next two weeks. If things go pear-shaped, which still is a real possibility given the whimsical nature of the US administration, then the international community will have to take a firm stand against both the US and Iran. For, it is not just their war but has become a matter of everybody’s survival. Some inflated egos cannot hold the world’s energy security hostage.