A RAY of hope has emerged in the West Asia crisis with the possibility of another round of talks between representatives of the United States and Iran. Feelers about a possible meeting in Pakistan have come from both sides despite the rising tensions over naval blockade of Iranian ports by the United States. Iran has already issued a direct warning of attacks on ports in the Middle-East in case the US begins military action on its vessels and military ships. An air of uncertainty has gripped the region yet again but the fragile ceasefire has continued for another day. In the midst of all this drama, the world is bracing up for a heavy impact of the stretched tensions as the Strait of Hormuz remains inaccessible for cargo vessels. India, too, is among the affected nations as it stares at turbulent times ahead on the energy and agriculture fronts. But more than this, there is a grave danger of the US action in West Asia shifting the power balance in favour of China in the Indo-Pacific region. Since the start of the Iran war, the US has been in a military overdrive.

 

It has brought out almost all of its options in play with the aim of intimidating Iran. The strategy has failed to yield substantial success except powerful strikes on Iran’s energy infra causing several civilian deaths. However, the products were designed to totally eliminate enemy threats, something which has not been recorded by any authority or international agency tracking conflicts. It is seen as a major setback for the US military and its technology division as Iran has held on strongly for almost fifty days without even a hint of surrender. Amid all this action, China has kept tapping strategic openings in the war without actual participation. China has been the biggest purchaser of Iranian crude oil and has been a strong backer of the Ayatollahs for years. It has smartly devised ways to ensure safe passage to oil shipments from the Hormuz Strait and also has been engaging with Tehran on strategic planning to deal with the United States. How China is placed in the entire gamut can be gauged from the last message from Beijing where it has directly called out the US naval blockade as an act of extreme aggression.

 

This is seen as a strong backing of Iran in case the US goes for the ballistics yet again, especially in the Hormuz gulf. China is shrewdly using America’s strategic distraction to strengthen its own position in the Indo-Pacific. President Mr. Donald Trump has put all his energies in just one war theatre which has eroded the Quad’s credibility sufficiently in the Indo-Pacific. This development brings India into the picture as the other partners -- US, Japan and Australia -- see India as the most strategic deterrence for China in the larger Indian Ocean Region. The US neglect of the Indo-Pacific can have big ramifications not just for the Quad members but also all the countries in the Indo-Pacific which are in the firing line of China for long. The West Asia crisis has created many such strategic opportunities for China. Beijing has been covertly making efforts to expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific and the Quad grouping was seen as its counterbalance. The strategic calculus has seen a big shift now which can push China to start its assertive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific on the lines of South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

 

There are already reports of Chinese navy activity near the Philippines. Joining the dots can present a broader strategy China is implementing even as the US entangles itself in the needless Iran war. India is aware of the dangers ahead in the form of energy crisis and maritime security. It has already tapped the US on the pitfalls of neglecting the Indo-Pacific during Foreign Secretary Mr. Vikram Misri’s visit. A proposed tour by US Secretary of State Mr. Marco Rubio in May might see some concrete steps in ensuring a fresh thrust to the Quad grouping. Parallely, India must bring Japan and Australia on board to tackle the turbulence with its own strategy.