NO MATTER the electoral rhetoric she is putting up in her own defence, West Bengal Chief Minister Ms. Mamata Banerjee (who also heads the Trinamool Congress -- TMC) is beginning to feel the real heat of the challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has thrown at her. As the polling dates are drawing closer, the feisty Chief Minister is realising that her grip on the masses of West Bengal may not remain as tight as it has been until now. As she knows that she is fighting a last-ditch battle for survival, Ms. Banerjee is employing every possible trick in her book that has stood her in good stead in the last fifteen years in a row at the helm. Possibly, she realises that if she does not win, she may face a disastrous jolt to her political career. The BJP, on the other hand, has reasons to have faith in its own campaign and to hope to oust the TMC from power and capture one more State in the Indian Union. The army of top-notch campaigners the BJP has deployed for the West Bengal campaign includes Chief Ministers and senior leaders of the party in addition to its regular star campaigners.

 

They are underlining not just the anti-incumbency factor but also the factor of bad governance aided and abetted by corruption by the TMC Government for fifteen years. Their most critical electoral plank is the illegal immigrants that have flooded West Bengal ruled by the TMC. Backwardness of the State’s economy and expanding unemployment are another areas in which the BJP has mounted frontal attack on TMC. The cumulative result of all these is that the TMC is finding it extremely difficult to counter the BJP’s systematic attack. Another negative factor that is weighing the TMC down is the absence of good numbers of star campaigners. The party has only one real campaigner -- and that is Ms. Banerjee. Others assisting her are nothing more than second-grade leaders whose impact on the voter’s thinking is only limited. The TMC does not have many constrictive factors to support its campaign to stay in power since the third term of the Government was loaded down with many a moral and ethical challenges for which the party does not seem to have right answers. The TMC’s attempt to brand the Special Intensive Revision of Voters’ Lists as undemocratic also did not work well and the people did not get swayed by Ms. Banerjee’s narrative. In the last legislative elections five years ago, the BJP had taken a jump from a mere three seats to an impressive 77 seats -- with its vote share jumping up by may percentile points.

 

This time, even the most conservative estimates of how the voters would behave tell that the BJP’s tally would take a big jump up and forward. Those estimates are so positive in the BJP’s favour that some even predict a straight victory over the TMC. One of the most important tools in the TMC’s hands has been violence -- to dominate the voter-behaviour. This time, that tool appears to have lost its sharpness and effectiveness. The BJP has succeeded in bringing onto the streets countless numbers of common people upholding BJP flags and seeking votes and promising support to the party. There is every reason to believe that free from any intimidation from the TMC, the common voters are openly expressing their disapproval of Madam Banerjee’s rule and their support for the BJP. Sensing a groundswell of support to the BJP, Ms. Mamata Banerjee appears all confused and does not seem to know how to respond to the BJP juggernaut. Though the results would always remain uncertain until the last moment since the TMC also has its positives, most political observers are beginning to believe that Ms. Banerjee is less likely to see the fourth consecutive term as Chief Minister with a repeat victory. All in all, West Bengal stands now at an important electoral cross-roads which the nation is watching with much interest -- and also anxiety. Though a definitive prediction may appear difficult, the expert and popular opinion appears tilted in the BJP’s favour.