EVEN as it seeks to return to power in Tamil Nadu (TN), the Dravida Munetra Kazgham (DMK) must be conscious of the acid test it has to undergo in the legislative elections. Though most political observers do not give the alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the All India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazgham (AIADMK) a very bright chance to dislodge the DMK from Government. Yet, there are political pundits who expect a significant rise in the voting share for the alliance in general and the BJP in particular. The BJP, however, seems eager to declare that it is expecting a positive outcome of the election -- and win with whatever majority. If that really happens, then that would be the most critical political development in the country in recent years.

 

The DMK, however, is under no impression that it would sail through the electoral process. In response to that anxiety, its entire leadership is working harder than ever to convince the voters that the BJP represents what its leaders describe as ‘Aryan’ mentality, and therefore needs to be blocked from coming to power. The weakness of the AIADMK is also helping the DMK to weave the narrative of the NDA being a party from the North and therefore is incapable of ruling Tamil Nadu. The Dravidian plank is the most important tool in DMK’s hand. All along, its effort has been to attach the nomenclature of ‘Aryan’ to the BJP and wean away whatever numbers of voters from the party whose national electoral record has been splendid. Though the BJP talks of wresting power from the DMK, its assessment about the possible outcome is very realistic as always. Electoral bravado apart, the BJP is conscious that it may have to wait for a few more years to set a firmer foot in Tamil Nadu. It is conscious of the advantage it enjoys because of its alliance with the AIADMK, but knows that it must engage in a long haul battle in Tamil Nadu. However, the BJP treats these elections as a starting point for its systematic foray into the State.

 

Over the next few years, it will establish itself fully in Tamil Nadu. Chief Minister Mr. M K Stalin’s main worry is exactly that -- the launch of the BJP in the State with firm local roots. If that happens, the DMK will have to keep fighting the BJP at every step of the way. That is Mr. Stalin’s main concern. For, he is conscious of his own party’s limitation of not having many leaders of national stature to counter the BJP. The strategic masterminds of the BJP are planning to take advantage of exactly this lacuna in the DMK. One of the electoral planks of the DMK is its opposition to the imposition of Hindi on the State. The BJP does not seem to lay much emphasis on that point during its electioneering. Its strategists know that an anti-English stance would drive no point in the party’s favour. Thus, leaving aside contentious issues, the BJP is trying to soften the mind of the average Tamilian voter towards its nationalistic policies -- and is seemingly beginning to capture a much increased vote share in this election. Some of the aspects of DMK’s election rhetoric have a few anti-India touches.

 

The BJP’s campaigners are trying to exploit those to wean common voters away from the DMK. Good signs are already available on the ground that the common voters are questioning the DMK at every step of the way about some of its policies and positions. Chief Minister Mr. Stalin is finding those questions quite uncomfortable. Probably, the BJP is relying on those very issues that make the DMK lose its sense of stability. Enough signals are available from Tamil Nadu that common voters are beginning to accept the BJP as their own party -- which has been the purpose of the party all along, not just in Tamil Nadu but also everywhere in the country. The Tamil Nadu elections would offer another fresh testing ground to the BJP for its own policy-refinement. The biggest trouble-spot for the DMK is that the BJP is not fighting any do-or-die battle in Tamil Nadu. It is patient and is willing to take things as they come -- thus laying foundation for the moves in the next five years.