India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its recently released Long Range Forecast (LRF), buzzed the warning of El Nino effect on Southwest Monsoon this year, affecting the monsoon rains all oer India. The effects of El Nino in India will be profound, which will influence various sectors like climate, agriculture, power and economy. This climatic phenomena will affect Maharashtra and Vidarbha also. In response to the potential impact of El Nino on the 2026 monsoon, the Maharashtra Government has initiated proactive measures to manage water resources, agricultural risks, and potential fodder shortages. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis recently chaired a high-level review meeting to address potential below-normal rainfall and increased heatwave risks. “El Nino is often associated with higher-than-average temperatures, leading to severe heatwave across India.

 

Along with this, the El Nino effect will impact various sectors in Vidarbha, including agriculture, power and water stock,” said Dr Pravin Kumar, Scientist C, Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Nagpur to ‘The Hitavada’. According to Dr Pravin Kumar, “The warming of the Pacific Ocean acts as a negative force against the monsoon, typically triggering drier conditions. This year, while neutral conditions may persist initially, a rapid transition to El Nino conditions is anticipated by June or July.

 

Whereas we are predicting that in the second half, specially in September, positive conditions may persist, which is likely to bring some good rains.” The senior meteorologist also informed that due to less monsoon rains this year, the water stock may reduce in dams of Vidarbha, which is likely to cause water shortage in coming year. “All Vidarbha rivers are downstream, which get water from upstream rivers which are in Madhya Pradesh. If MP receive less monsoon rains, the downstream rivers in Vidarbha will remain waterless throughout the year. In this situation, severe water shortage may persist in Vidarbha.” He also explained that due to lack of water stock, the power sector will also face minor impact as it requires water for electricity generation. “The onset of the monsoon season could be delayed during El Nino years, further disrupting the agricultural calendar and water resource management. Variations in precipitation and temperature can impact crop yields,” said Dr Anupam Kashyapi, the former Head of IMD Pune’s Weather Forecasting Division. Dr Kashyapi recommended mitigation to avoid the impact of El Nino in this monsoon season in our daily life.

 

“There are three important factors, which we have to adopt as a society to handle such challenges. First is water harvesting and its conservation, second is avoid high water-consuming crops and use short or mid-term crops, and third is to restrict water use in residential societies.” Explaining the factors, Dr Kashyapi said, “Due to less monsoon rains, water crisis may surface. To avoid this, the State Government and common people should think about water harvesting and its conservation to face the harsh period.” Paddy and sugarcane crops in Maharashtra may get impacted due to below-normal rains this year. To avoid such condition, agrarians must adopt crops which require less water. Similarly, farmers can also practice short and mid-term crops, which can be harvested within 100 days, said Dr Kashyapi. He also advised the State Government, municipal corporations and individuals to use less water not only during summer, but also throughout the year to avoid the water crisis that may prevail due to El Nino effect. “Humans cannot control or prevent El Nino effect, but its effects can be mitigated through improved early warning systems and preparedness strategies.”