THOUGH momentarily, global attention has shifted towards the presumed attempt on United States President Mr. Donald Trump during the annual dinner of White House correspondents. The US President was safely escorted out of the venue and the California-based gunman has since been arrested for trying to kill Mr. Trump. Around all this sudden drama in Washington, the world has also kept its keen eye on the awkward situation developing in the US-Iran peace talks. Both sides are adamant on their own narratives for the proposed negotiations in Pakistan but none has taken a concrete step to actually make the peace talks happen. It is a bizarre situation of ‘no war, no peace’ that has kept the world on tenterhooks, for, its aftermath carries major risks to the global economy.

 

The peace talks have been on the horizon for long. After the failed first round the fragile ceasefire announced by the US and Iran has continued but the second round of talks is taking too long, raising anxiety around the world as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays. With neither side willing to give ground to move talks forward, there is a lurking danger of other actors in the war igniting fresh tensions between America and Iran. Analysts have been suggesting use of a capable third party which can make both the US and Iran sit together without any pre-condition. Though Pakistan has done a fine job in facilitating direct talks between the two warring nations, its role has not moved beyond that of a messenger. Growing clamour against Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir’s heavy tilt towards the US has further caused distrust among the negotiators in Iran. This lack of trust on the mediator might scuttle another chance of negotiations between the representatives of the two sides. It will be too early to say if Pakistan is kept out of the peace talks in the future and some other country replaces it as a neutral side engaging with both the US and Iran.

 

However, the current imbroglio points towards a new structure of negotiations where some other country sharing good relations with both Washington and Tehran can play the crucial role of a mediator. The war needs a closure but it has petered into a long pause at present. Both Iran and America know the economic pain the war is causing to the entire world but seem too obdurate to make any concessions. There is no question of Iran giving up its most potent leverage on the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade of the crucial maritime waterway has already given the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a strategic victory over Mr. Trump’s verbal fire. Tehran has forced the US to redraw its goals from de-nuclearisation of Iran to keeping the Hormuz gulf open for vessels. Its closure has already resulted in a massive energy crisis in Asia and many other parts of the world. Iran, too, is bleeding to some extent with the US naval blockade but the pain it is causing to the US economy and Mr. Trump’s ego is too big for it to give up so easily. In such circumstances, holding meaningful peace talks looks highly impossible, for, there is no way the US President can make sense of the situation. Without momentum of negotiations both countries will remain trapped under persistent threat of escalation. For Iran, it would not matter as the country is ready to fight its battle of survival.

 

However, for the US there is simply no honourable exit from the mess it was dragged into by a trigger-happy ally. It has already suffered many losses in the form of weapons and equipment. There would not be an open acknowledgement of the reverses but deep inside the US knows carrying on with the tiring war is a total waste of time, energy and money. Until this reality is drilled into the White House bosses by some sane entity, there might be no headway towards a peace dialogue. Though backchannel efforts are on to bring both Iran and the US on the same page, it is time for India to assume the role of a peacemaker to bring closure to a painful chapter.