UNITED States President Mr. Donald Trump’s address to the nation detailing the ongoing war with Iran was full of deviations from the original goals (if there were any!) as it exposed the complexities of the elusive exit plan for America. While the US and the world were expecting Mr. Trump’s definite assertion on the conclusion of the war, the President again chose blusters and bravado to impress upon the American citizens that the country was winning the war. The reality is far different from the claims as Iran has also decided that it would not back down in face of further attacks by the US-Israel combine. Mr. Trump’s 18-minute address at the White House has told the world that the conflict is not nearing an end. A long struggle awaits as the POTUS has promised to hit Iran “very, very hard” in the next two to three weeks before ending the war.

 

The extension of the deadline from earlier three-four weeks to three weeks more reflects the botched up planning by the US think-tank as Mr. Trump was dragged into this unnecessary war by Israel. The last two weeks have seen a barrage of statements from Mr. Trump and the US administrators as they started a parallel war of words with the Iranian leadership. It shows that the US and Israel are not on the same page on the conclusion of the war. While Washington looks desperate to end the conflict, there is no word from Tel Aviv about the future course. It exposes the deviation in thinking of Mr. Trump and Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu even as Iran’s depleted leadership has tested their resources and strategies by putting up a shrewd and resilient fight. It has forced Mr. Trump to change his tone and tenor over negotiations and deal-making marking a climbdown from the earlier sound of superiority. The war has already pinched the US treasury very hard as the Republicans, too, are questioning the high spending needed to keep America’s image intact.

 

The ground reality has shown that the US military power has totally failed against a determined force despite having the world’s best weapons and technology. Mr. Trump is aware of the reverses his forces have faced due to the unique strategy adopted by Iran by attacking US bases in a wide theatre. Yet, the President’s ego is not letting him go for a halt in hostilities which should be the most pragmatic solution at this moment. Going by his address to the nation, the American economy is set to bleed for a few more weeks before counting the cost of the ill-advised war. The US President has hinted at accepting the new regime in Tehran for further negotiations to strike a deal. It is a major turnaround in the US position which had vowed to end the government led by the Ayatollahs. Despite the killing of the Supreme Leader Mr. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the successors have managed to keep the regime intact and active. It proves that the regime in Iran is far from collapsing as envisaged by Mr. Trump and the door for negotiations remains open for the US. This development can be termed as a moral victory for Tehran and a big win for its strategy of choking the Strait of Hormuz. The most critical maritime route for global oil supply remains out of bound for the US and its allies, puncturing Mr. Trump’s hollow threats. In fact, it has forced the US to adopt the strategy of leaving Hormuz totally out of the equation and leaving the world at the mercy of the IRGC. What it means is a long haul for all countries dependent upon oil supplies from the Hormuz gulf.

 

The war is set to stretch into another month after Mr. Trump’s address and the world will have to brace for the economic fallout of the long blockade. While backchannel diplomacy has begun to free the chokehold, there is still a looming danger of escalation in attacks as promised by Mr. Trump in his address to the nation. The next few weeks are extremely important for the world to strengthen its back-up plans in face of the incorrigible US behaviour.