FROM the brink of “killing whole civilisation”, the United States and Iran have stepped back to an agreed halt in military aggression for a brief period of 14 days, providing huge relief to the world. The ceasefire announced by the two countries after successful mediation attempts now opens a tricky path of negotiations given the rigid terms on the table from both Washington and Tehran. Yet, there seems to be a realisation of the futility of going ahead with a conflict for leadership in both the US and Iran which should be welcomed by the world with a sustained effort to make the ceasefire work into the end of the unnecessary war.

 

There are still doubts over the success of the ceasefire announced by US President Mr. Donald Trump and the Iranian leadership, for, the past few days had seen similar developments getting scuttled and transforming into further aggression by the two sides. This time, however, there is hope of the pause holding up for a longer time, allowing both sides to fulfill their goals through dialogue and diplomacy. As the two sides come face to face after the barrage of aggression -- both verbal and military -- a definite framework is needed from all the interested parties to help sustain the talks without any element of acrimony. It is necessary to lay down the agenda in full detail before the two sides hammer out a truce for the simple reason that the US President’s maverick nature can ruin any deal at the drop of a hat. This makes the role of the representatives of both the governments extremely important as the ceasefire conditions include the critical point of nuclear arsenal in Iran and the opening of the most critical waterway in the world. These two points present the biggest test to the delegations as they propose to meet at a neutral place.

 

The path ahead is full of deep contradictions between the two sides. Despite the wisdom of pausing the war as it was going haywire without a strategy or exit plan, the US is still in the bullying mood with the false sense of its military power. The same power was dealt hammer blows by a resilient Iran for almost 40 days even as the US lost its high-cost equipment, planes and helicopters but the false belief of emerging victorious is too overwhelming for Mr. Trump to see the logic of a peace initiative. This reality has rightly tempered optimism on the success of the ceasefire. The ceasefire has evoked a guarded welcome from the world as it prays for its success in permanent end to hostilities between US and Iran. The conflict has badly affected the entire world due to the strategic chokehold of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. The conflict has already caused immense damage to people and disrupted energy supplies and trade. It has assaulted freedom of navigation, leading to suffering of scores of people in most countries. A large part of the world is facing a fuel crisis without any back-up option to bridge the massive deficit. The concept of green energy is still in its infancy in all continents. In such a scenario, the disruption in fuel supplies without their fault has already pushed the world to the edge.

 

This truth has to become part of the deal between the US and Iran with a pledge that such misadventures would not be repeated. Stability must be restored at the earliest with a comprehensive peace deal between the warring parties. It is easier said than done, though. For, the theatre has not considered the role of the third actor which has refused to read the ceasefire script. Israel, which actually dragged Mr. Trump into the war is not part of the ceasefire agreement. It means armed hostilities can still continue against Iran. Attacks have already been reported in Iranian power facilities within hours of the ceasefire announcement. These developments show the fragility of the 14-day pause as Israel might still not relent in pursuit of its long-standing dream of totally neutralising Iran’s nuclear programme. Whether diplomacy can prevail over missiles will be out in the open within a few days.