THE South-West monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall over India is expected to be below normal, the India Meteorological Department said in its second forecast for the season on Friday. The department stated that rainfall is likely to be 90 per cent of the long-period average with a model error of 4 per cent. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm. LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years. While the North-East is likely to witness normal rainfall this monsoon season, the remaining parts of the country may see below-normal rainfall, the weather office said. In its first forecast for the monsoon season on April 13, the IMD had said that India might witness 92 per cent of LPA rainfall this year.

 

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said in a statement on Friday, “The South-West monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be below normal (less than 94 pc of LPA).” The average rainfall for the country as a whole in June is most likely to be below normal -- less than 92 per cent of the LPA, he said. If the monsoon season sees less than 90 per cent of LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as ‘deficient’. While the IMD had earlier said that the monsoon’s onset over Kerala was likely to happen on May 26, the department has now stated that this may take place in the next seven days. Typically, Kerala witnesses the onset of South-West monsoon around June 1, which marks the beginning of the South-West monsoon season in the country. South-West monsoon entered some parts of Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16.

 

As of Thursday, it covered parts of the South Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Area, South Bay of Bengal, East-central Bay, entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and the Andaman Sea.