The developing El Nino is creating a substantial deficit risk, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), on Saturday, predicting that the Southwest Monsoon this year in Vidarbha region will remain below 94% of the long-period average. This is raising severe concern for agricultural output in the region as it will impact rain-fed crops like soybean, cotton, and pulses, and may result in sharp regional water and groundwater shortage. Vidarbha, which receives 940 mm average rainfall every year during monsoon, is likely to witness rainfall deficit due to El Nino phenomena. “As a whole, India is going to receive 90% normal rainfall in the upcoming Southwest Monsoon season, and Vidarbha will see below 94% of seasonal rainfall this year. We have categorised it in below normal,” Dr Praveen Kumar, Scientist C, Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Nagpur told

 

‘The Hitavada’. In the history of Vidarbha, El Nino impacted Southwest Monsoon in the years 2002, 2004, 2009, 2015, and 2023. During these years, it consistently depressed the yields of major Kharif crops in the region. Soybean, which is a major crop in Vidarbha, has historically seen yield drops ranging from -12% to -57% due to poor soil moisture in critical growth months. The effects of El Nino in Vidarbha will be profound, which will influence various sectors like climate, agriculture, power, etc. In response to the potential impact of El Nino on the 2026 monsoon, the Maharashtra Government has initiated proactive measures to manage water resources, agricultural risks, and potential fodder shortages. “There are two major factors, which will impact the Southwest Monsoon this year in Vidarbha. One is El Nino and second one is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is an irregular, natural oscillation of sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean,” said Dr Praveen Kumar.

 

“The warming of the Pacific Ocean acts as a negative force against the monsoon, typically triggering drier conditions. This year, while neutral IOD conditions may persist initially, it will also impact the monsoon in the region,” explained the senior meteorologist. While talking about the relief from scorching summer heat, the meteorologist said, “People will heave a sigh of relief this week as the maximum temperature will fall by 2-4 degrees Celsius and it will settle between 40.0 degrees Celsius and 42 degrees Celsius in coming week.” He further said that, pre-monsoon activities will increase in Vidarbha from Sunday onwards as thunderstorm with lightning and patchy rains may occur in all districts of Vidarbha. He also informed that, the Weather Department had issued hailstorm warning for Wardha, Chandrapur, Amravati and Yavatmal districts for Sunday and other parts will experience thunderstorm activities. Despite this, the meteorologist also informed that the monsoon in June will remain below normal in whole of Vidarbha.