THERE is every reason to believe that the peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran would be signed on June 19, 2026. Yet, there is no guarantee that the deal would be an honest attempt to end war and restore normalcy. For, if Iran is clear on what it expects from the deal, the US is still engaged in dishing out slogans and narratives that appear rather divorced from the international realpolitik. For, Iran has made it very clear that no deal would be worth its name if Israel is not there on board -- and that Tel Aviv does not stop strikes on Hezbollah locations in Lebanon. Israeli leadership, too, has pointed to its own unwillingness to go ahead with the deal in which it is being made to play a second fiddle.

 

Though the US will send its large delegation headed by Vice President Mr. J.D. Vance for signing of the deal, there is no guarantee of genuine peace to emerge from the half-baked diplomatic machinations now underway. It appears to many that US President Mr. Donald Trump is in sort of a hurry to end the war and sign the deal -- for that he will have enough time for damage control ahead of mid-term elections in his country due the coming winter. So, by most angles, the proposed deal is promising to be more like a dilly-dally deal rather than a concrete effort to resolve a major conflict. Of course, for record, the Strait of Hormuz would be freed from Iranian blockade. Of course, the US, too, would lift its blockade around Iranian ports and other installations etc. And of course, for the stipulated period, there would be no hostilities so as to provide a peaceful backdrop to the negotiations following the signing of the deal. Yet, none of these will have a sense of permanence because there will still remain countless loose ends to be stitched together globally. In the developments in the past four-five days, Iran has appeared to be a more stable party with better clarity of objectives.

 

It has put forth a five-point agenda for the process of signing of the deal. On the American side, however, things are only noisy meaning nothing. President Mr. Donald Trump is in a tearing hurry to get through the deal for the need of his domestic politics. He might have described himself as a master crafter of deals (in his famous book ‘The Art of Deal), but in reality, he appears to be only pushing things in a knee-jerk manner with no eye on long-term gains (even for the united States). Mr. Trump appears fully fed up of war and its ill-effects -- and therefore is keen to end the war somehow, and get ready to reap the benefit in mid-term elections in the US. Meanwhile, virtually, Hormuz may be freed from various blockades etc, but for it to become completely free -- with all mines etc removed -- a time of a few weeks will have to pass. Possibly, the global energy system has not been left with enough margin to demonstrate patience and wait for good results. Countries like India that lean heavily on oil and gas imports for their energy needs may find it tough to take care of their internal energy security challenges in the next couple of months. It must be stated here that India has conducted itself with remarkable patience and persistence and handled the energy-security situation with maturity.

 

The world is now realising the strength in India’s persistence with purchase of Russian oil as a long-term cushion for its energy needs. India’s internal oil and gas exploration, too, has assumed a greater speed and scale with passage of time. So, India will decrease its dependence for its oil and gas needs on foreign sources significantly. Yet, even as the US and Iran go through the motions of signing the deal, India will have to exercise a much greater self-discipline and restraint in its usage of oil and gas for its own needs -- to add value to its sustenance time-table. Meanwhile, the world will see hectic preparations underway for signing of the US-Iran deal, all right. Yet, the world will have to keep a full preparedness to press emergency buttons to meet energy supply challenges.