The Southwest Monsoon missed its normal onset date of June 1 over Keralam, which may also delay the onset in Maharashtra and Vidarbha as well. However, the Skymet Weather predicted that in coming days, Vidarbha and Nagpur district can expect warm weather with temperature ranging from 42.0 degrees Celsius as maximum and 27.0 degrees Celsius as night temperature on June 2 and 3. Thereafter, the temperature will gradually decrease slightly over the next few days, reaching around 33.0 degrees Celsius on June 8. Skymet also predicted that there is a heatwave window from June 2 to 5, with temperature often exceeding 40.0 degrees Celsius daily in Nagpur district. It also predicted that, thunderstorm is expected on June 9 and 10. Normally, June is the onset month of southwest monsoon which brings gradual fall in day temperature.

 

The normal date for onset of monsoon in Nagpur district is June 10 to 15, but the current scenario of advancement of southwest monsoon over mainland India is giving a mixed prediction that it may be delayed by a few days. According to Skymet Weather, “A weak monsoon current is lingering on the outskirts, covering the Maldives and Comorin region, and is waiting in the wings to spread across Sri Lanka and extreme South Peninsular India.” Over the last ten years, the monsoon has witnessed a mix of early arrivals and delayed onsets.

 

The monsoon arrived as early as May 24 last year and overshot the normal onset date by about a week in 2016, 2019 and 2023, reaching Keralam on June 8 in those years. By and large, the onset has remained within the standard deviation of about one week, which is considered a fairly consistent record. However, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the average rainfall in Nagpur district in June is 190.6 mm and number of rainy days are only 8.9. Whereas, the highest rainfall in June was recorded at 500.6 mm way back in 1881, and the heaviest fall in 24 hours is 315 mm recorded on June 12 in 1911. As per the climatic features of Nagpur district, the IMD stated that, the rainfall in June reported a decreasing trend in last three years as Nagpur district recorded 152.3 mm rainfall in 2023, then Contd on page 2