WEST Bengal minister Tapas Roy on Tuesday claimed that the Opposition TMC was heading towards a split similar to the ones witnessed in Maharashtra. Speaking to reporters outside the Assembly, Roy claimed the TMC had accommodated people with little political background and that internal contradictions were now surfacing. Asserting that the TMC was undergoing an inevitable process of fragmentation, the BJP MLA of Maniktala claimed it would eventually disappear from the State's political landscape. "There is growing dissatisfaction among many leaders and legislators. The developments indicate that the party is heading towards a split, a situation similar to what happened in Maharashtra," claimed the veteran leader, who switched over to the BJP from the TMC in 2024. Earlier, senior TMC MLA Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay asserted that the majority of the party legislators would remain with supremo Mamata Banerjee, and the old guards would continue to retain control of the organisation. He alleged that attempts were being made by the ruling dispensation to engineer defections and destabilise the opposition, but maintained that the TMC was united. Expelled TMC MLA Ritabrata Banerjee, who is believed to be the leader of the rebel camp, claimed that the party has been “hijacked by I-PAC and no longer belongs to Mamata Banerjee”. Banerjee made the comment outside the Assembly, with his visit to the House when it is not in session fuelling further speculations. In West Bengal, at least two-thirds of Trinamool MLAs -- around 53 of its original number of 80 -- would need to defect together to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law.

 

 

Reports suggest that around 50 MLAs are currently aggrieved, making the possibility of a formal split more than just speculation. This means Mamata Banerjee’s leadership is vulnerable not just to internal dissent but also to the institutional weight of the Election Commission’s recognition process. Based on laws laid down, the poll body plays a decisive role in determining which faction of a split party is recognised as the “real” one. The Commission examines which faction commands the majority of legislators, also taking into consideration who controls the party’s organisational structure, including office bearers, committees, etc. Incidentally, in 1969, the Indian National Congress (Organisation), also known as Congress (O), came into being when the party split following the expulsion of Indira Gandhi. But she prevailed, with her faction -- Congress (Indira) or Congress (I) – gaining dominance through electoral victories. For the Trinamool in West Bengal, the number of members in the State Legislature has already come down to 78 after the expulsion of two MLAs. They had brought to light alleged fraudulent signatures in a party resolution nominating names for the posts of the Leader of Opposition in the West Bengal Assembly, two Deputy Leaders of the Opposition, and the party’s Chief Whip. Reports suggest that amid the current discontent within the Trinamool, 50 MLAs are “unhappy” with the leadership.

 

Party meetings have witnessed low attendance, even leading to cancellation in the absence of a quorum. Meanwhile, there were talks of “secret meetings” of MLAs having allegedly met outside official channels, fuelling speculation of an imminent split. However, even if such meetings did take place, the magic figure of 53 is the least requirement for legislators to break away and not come under the ambit of the anti-defection law. If not, they would risk expulsion from the legislature. The BJP in West Bengal has ruled out welcoming turncoats from the Trinamool Congress as of now. Thus, any leader abandoning ship has to think in terms of a parallel platform rather than being absorbed into the folds of the ruling party. Since the Congress (I) precedent, to Maharashtra in recent times, political upheavals show how numbers, with a charismatic leadership and mass appeal, can override all challenges, a lesson relevant to Mamata Banerjee’s current predicament. But the 71-year-old founder of Trinamool Congress may not want to give up without another fight.