The summer holiday rush that travel agents in the city count on every year has this season turned into a waiting game, with bookings for leisure travel collapsing under the combined weight of rising fuel costs, global geopolitical uncertainty, and an appeal from the Prime Minister himself, advising citizens against foreign travel. Raju Akolkar, Secretary, Travel Agents Association of India’s Vidarbha chapter, places the broader, cumulative drop at 30 to 40 per cent, when summer months data is compared year-on-year. Shailesh Arya, Proprietor, Connect India Tours and Travels, shared that, family travel bookings for this summer are the most affected. Akolkar shared that, at the bottom of the crisis is a sharp rise in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices, a pressure point that has restructured the economics of nearly every international route out of India.

 

The ATF spike is a direct fallout of the ongoing geopolitical conflict that sent global fuel costs sharply higher. Fuel expenses typically account for up to 40 per cent of airline operating costs, leaving carriers with little flexibility to maintain routes when prices climb steeply. In major metropolitan markets, ATF costs have climbed above Rs 1,00,000 per kilolitre, a significant increase from Rs 80,000 earlier in the year. India’s two major airlines, IndiGo and Air India, have announced cut in flight schedules for June and July, with IndiGo curtailing domestic operations by approximately 7 to 10% and Air India more than 20% of its regulat flights. Arya described a ‘ripple effect’ in which passengers from cancelled flights scrambled to rebook on whatever seats remained, concentrating demand on a shrinking availability, and allowing airlines to push fares upwards.

 

The drop in available seats has contributed to spike (25%) in ticket prices, making an international trip dearer. Compounding the fuel-driven disruption is a macro-economic dimension that Akolkar highlighted. Arya explained that Europe, typically a marquee summer destination, bore the setback. The continuing impact of restricted airspace due to the Middle East conflict has led to longer, diverted flight routes, higher fuel consumption, and diminished profitability on Europe, North America, Australia and Singapore routes. With Europe becoming unaffordable or inaccessible, travel demand pivoted towards Asia.

 

Destinations like Japan, China, Singapore, and Malaysia saw a sudden surge in inquiries from the Indian tourists. Arya told that, visa processing infrastructure was not calibrated for the volume. Sachin Mathurkar, a businessman, who was planning a trip to China, shared that, processing times shot from a normal 10 days to over 40 days. To that, Arya explained that the surge in demand for Japan had already prompted the Government to make prior appointments mandatory at visa application centres, with daily submission caps imposed at major centres, and appointment slots during peak seasons filling within hours. “For families with fixed school holiday windows, the arithmetic of a 40-plus-day queue did not work, forcing many to cancel the plan,” Arya noted. What this summer has made clear is how quickly a confluence of global forces, fuel economics, geopolitical disruption, a weakening currency, administrative visa bottlenecks, and a Government appeal on spending, can flatten the demand further.