The Southwest Monsoon has successfully advanced across the entirety of Madhya Pradesh as of July 2. While the arrival brings relief, the State has logged an overall rainfall deficit of 23% compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) from June 1 to July 2. This deficit highlights a sharp geographical divide, as western Madhya Pradesh recorded an encouraging 1% above-normal cumulative rainfall, whereas eastern parts face a steep 48% deficit with severe shortages visible across the Shahdol, Jabalpur, and Bundelkhand areas. The immediate weekly outlook is promising, especially for western belts like Ujjain and Indore, where heavy to very heavy downpours are anticipated. Despite a robust opening week, the broader probability forecast for the month of July indicates that cumulative rainfall across Madhya Pradesh will likely remain below the long-period average of 280.4 mm. Deficits are projected to remain pronounced in the Rewa division, while sections of Shajapur, Sehore, and Bhopal might experience near-normal or slightly above-normal trends. Simultaneously, global oceanic configurations reveal El Nino and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) parameters that are pushing atmospheric changes. Consequently, both maximum and minimum temperatures are predicted to hover above normal limits across a majority of districts through July. An analysis of the four-week extended range model reveals distinct temporal shifts in weather behaviours as the month progresses. While the initial phase maintains excellent rain prospects in the west and negative temperature anomalies state-wide, week two (July 9 to July 16) will see rain drying up in eastern districts while western patches stay positive.

 

By week three (July 16 to July 23), operations will stabilise toward normal levels across most zones, though localised positive bursts are likely around Chhindwara, Betul, Balaghat, Anuppur and Shahdol. The month is expected to wrap up in the final week with a general dip in monsoon performance, returning parts of the state to below-normal rainfall activity. Keolari records a massive 166.0 mm of rainfall, temperatures to plunge markedly by 6.0°C: The State experienced torrential downpours, with Keolari recording a massive 166.0 mm of rainfall and Chand following closely at 140.0 mm. This intense monsoonal activity caused maximum temperatures to plunge markedly by 6.0°C in the Chambal division, leaving daytime temperatures significantly below normal across the northern and eastern belts. Across the state, Ratlam recorded the highest maximum temperature at 37.6°C, while Pachmarhi registered the lowest minimum at 20.2°C. Active weather systems unleashed widespread thunderstorms and lightning strikes across almost all divisions, including Indore, Ujjain, Jabalpur, and Gwalior. Accompanying the storms were powerful gusty winds, peaking at speeds of 48 km/h in Sehore, 33 km/h in Raisen, and 31 km/h in Bhopal, Sagar, and Panna.

 

In the capital city of Bhopal, the weather remained heavily dynamic; while the immediate hours recorded no fresh rainfall but it rained in the evening, the maximum temperature hovered at a cool 31.6°C, two degrees below the seasonal normal, with humidity levels surging to 87%. Residents are advised to stay indoors during active lightning intervals. Khandwa and Harda under red alert: The Meteorological Centre Bhopal has issued critical weather warnings for July 3, 2026, pointing to a highly active monsoon system positioned directly over southern and western Madhya Pradesh. Torrential downpours are expected across “Most Places” in the state’s deep southern corridor, including Dhar, Barwani, Khargone, Khandwa, Burhanpur, Betul, and Harda. Surrounding economic and administrative hubs, such as Indore, Ujjain, Dewas, Shajapur, Sehore, Bhopal, Raisen, Narmadapuram, Chhindwara, Seoni, Jabalpur, and Balaghat, are also on track to receive widespread rainfall at “Many Places”. Conversely, northern and eastern borders including Gwalior, Chambal, and Rewa divisions will see a temporary breather, with showers limited only to ‘isolated’ or ‘few places’. Red Warning (Take Action) is currently active for Khandwa and Harda, where severe weather hazards pose immediate structural and waterlogging risks. Simultaneously, a high-priority Orange Alert (Be Prepared) has been declared for Indore, Dewas, Khargone, Barwani, Burhanpur, and Betul, with forecasts predicting very heavy downpours ranging between 115.6 mm and 204.4 mm.