AGRICULTURE Secretary Mr. Atish Chandra has sounded warning of a possible foodgrain crisis as the El Nino weather pattern is set to cast its intensity in the Rabi season. The warning holds tremendous importance not only for the Central Government but also for the farming community as they would be at the receiving end of the climate impact. Unless contingency plans are hastened till the interiors, especially the rainfed regions, the El Nino impact can have severe economic fallout in every sector. It is a looming danger which needs urgent attention on war-footing. One thing that needs to be accepted by the entire country is that climate change has become a reality. There is no escape from the aftereffects and the upcoming Rabi season will be the first to face the brunt of the crisis.

 

Though El Nino was supposed to impact the Kharif season too, late revival of rains helped many regions stay at par for the course. Kharif production might not be the same as last year but timely rains have helped farmers salvage something substantial. Despite drought affecting many districts across the country due to below-average monsoon, there has been a hike in acreage for many water-dependent crops. However, the picture might not be the same in the Rabi season when the El Nino will be at its dangerous high. The World Meteorological Organisation has reported that a very strong El Nino is developing and will have consequences for humans. An assessment by the Climate Impact Lab has projected 4,51,000 heat-related deaths globally from June 2026 to February 2027. The intensity of this El Nino and the warmer baseline is likely to result in heat-related deaths even in the winter months. The study finds that India is expected to be among the worst-affected by the growing intensity of El Nino.

 

Droughts, crop failures and wildfires can occur in some regions while intense rainfall and flooding devastate others. The Agriculture Secretary’s warning for Rabi season is based on these threats which are real and close. In India, Rabi crops are normally sown across around 638 lakh hectares. Wheat accounts for more than 300 lakh hectares, followed by pulses at around 140 lakh hectares, oilseeds at 87 lakh hectares and coarse cereals at 55 lakh hectares. Drop in production due to poor crop yield will upset not only house-hold budgets but also India’s economic story despite clocking a robust GDP defying global headwinds in the first quarter of the fiscal. The story might take a massive detour in the second half if plans are not in place to secure the vulnerable agricultural regions. Blame for the deteriorating condition definitely goes to humans. The world has contributed heavily to global warming thus turning a familiar climatic entity into an imposing danger. Even as the world is facing the effects of human-induced global warming, some nations are still not ready to accept that climate change is for real.

 

Their cavalier attitude is putting the entire world at risk of something catastrophic. Already, different parts of the world are witnessing disasters attributed to climate change. The recent flash floods in Nepal due to melting glaciers was a warning to the entire world. Yet, precious little is being done to make the war against climate change a potent campaign. In these circumstances, it is incumbent upon India to devise its own mechanisms to save its agrarian economy. The challenges need to be acknowledged and a plan must be prepared keeping in mind climate resilience and farmer incomes in all landscapes in India. Greater crop diversification remains a big solution to fight climate change. It can be made possible only with awareness of the soil structure, water availability and climate in the land patches. The Centre can do well by involving multiple private agencies and start-ups in taking technology to the hinterland. Agriculture research across the vast farms across India will need data at good speed to formulate crop patterns for those particular regions. More hands with modern tech in the field are necessary to build a counter to climate change. Accurate data and farmer IDs are essential to end asymmetry and rebuild last-mile connectivity.