India’s population to beat China’s; be 10 times of US’

The countries that will experience the greatest population growth, in descending order, are predicted to be India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, US

THE Earth will be home to some 9.7 billion people in 2050 and by 2100, the number will increase to 11 billion. India’s population will surpass China’s by 2027, and despite being one-third the size of the US will hold a population 10 times higher than America, the UN has announced. The UN in its biannual population report on Monday also warned about a growing ageing population in Europe and North America, the Efe news reported.

The report though stressed that the population would grow at a slower pace than it had been forecast two years back. The countries that will experience the greatest population growth, in descending order, are predicted to be India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the US. In the updated document, “The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights” the international body has stressed that in the next 30 years, the world’s current population of 7.7 billion will grow by about 2 billion and the ageing of the world’s population will also spike “due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels.” In its 2017 study on population growth, the UN had forecast that there would be 9.8 billion people on the planet in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. Along those lines, the report emphasises that in 2050, about 16 per cent of the world’s population will be over 65 years of age, compared with 9 per cent at present.

By regions, Europe and North America will have a much higher than average number of over-65 citizens: 25 per cent. The UN warns that this ageing trend — in 2050 will be 426 million people over age 80, compared to 143 million now — bringing with it a decline in the proportion of the working age population. It will hence exert pressure on social security systems that rely on wage-earners to contribute part of their pay to such safety-net programmes.

The algorithm used to forecast population growth also found that the number of countries experiencing a reduction in their populations is increasing. The report notes that since 2010, a total of 27 countries or areas have experienced a decline of 1 per cent or more in the size of their populations due to lower fertility levels. With the fertility rate having fallen from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, it is now predicted to go down to around 2.2 by 2050. The UN calculates that, without migration, a level of 2.1 births per woman is necessary to merely ensure generational replacement of the population.