MUCH-MALIGNED PUTIN MAY YET STAND TO BE VINDICATED

 

 

 

US President Joe Biden, on Tuesday, March 28, came down heavily on a Russian plan to deploy nuclear weapons in neighbouring Belarus, terming it “dangerous” talk. Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced last week that Russia planned to deploy in the neighbouring state tactical, small-yield N-arms that would traverse a short range, although he was not specific about how many nuclear weapons his country would deploy in Belarus. This would be alongside Russia’s tactical nuclear arsenal, Belarusian President AlexanderGrigoryevich Lukashenko, one of Putin’s closest allies, confirmed on Friday (March 31, 2023). At a White House Press briefing, Biden said, “This is dangerous and worrisome talk.” At first glance, one may tend to agree with Biden. But a closer analysis would reveal another set of geo-political compulsions that would seem to vindicate the Russian President. Putin and Lukashenko have both claimed that the West wants to “ruin” their respective countries. Lukashenko said he and Putin would together decide the introduction of strategic weapons in his country. “They must understand this—the scoundrels abroad—who today are trying to blow us up from inside and outside,” Lukashenko said. “We’ll stop at nothing to protect ourcountries, our state and their peoples.” Within a few days of the British Government’s announcement that it would supply Ukraine ammunition containing depleted uranium, Putin declared his intention to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which shares a border with Ukraine. This announcement came on March 25. A Reuters report said he spoke on State television and mentioned that the reason for talks with Belarus President Lukashenko was triggered by the British Deputy Minister of Defence’s announcement of UK’s intention to provide depleted uranium weapons to Ukraine. Even otherwise, the Belarusian leader has persistently sought the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on his country’s soil. UK Minister of State for Defence Annabel Goldie announced on March 20 that Britain was providing Ukraine with ammunition for Challenger 2 battle tanks which contained depleted uranium armour-piercing rounds. The Russian President’s announcement followed soon after this. The potential threat of nuclear conflict with the US and its European allies also turns the spotlight on precisely how these weapons are positioned by the NATO allies. Putin has compared his plans of nuclear weapons deployment in Belarus to the USA’s long-term strategy of storing nuclear arms in Europe. Since the 1950s, nuclear weapons have been stationed by the US at NATO bases inWestern Europe, at a time when tensions with the Soviet Union were escalating. These weapons were initially moved to the UK in 1954 and then to other countries—Germany, Italy, France, Turkey, the Netherlands, Greece and Belgium. Currently, there are six bases in five NATO member-nations—Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey, where US tactical nuclear weapons are still stationed. The UK and France have their indigenous nuclear capabilities and do not host US weapons any longer. In the 1970s, the US had deployed over 7,000 weapons in Europe. However, due to arms control agreements and the end of superpower rivalry with the Soviet Union, the number of weapons dropped significantly in the late-1980s and early-1990s. In 1987, there was a significant achievement in arms control—the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which is no longer in operation. Under this treaty, the US and the Soviet Union removed all their medium-range missiles and launchers that could carry nuclear warheads within a few years. The current number of nuclear weapons held by the US in Europe is not publicly disclosed, but Western security experts have said there are roughly 100 nuclear bombs lodged in six different facilities.

All of the US nuclear bombs in Europe are B61 gravity bombs, the only tactical nuclearweapon the US still possesses. It can carry warheads with a large range of yields, resulting in blasts that can range up to a few hundred kilotons, in contrast to those used in the 1945 attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki which had yields of only 15 and 21 kilotons. Western experts say that Russia has stationed its nuclear weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarines and large bombers, in over 12 military facilities or even more located throughout its extensive land. The presence of nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, a Russian territory sandwiched between NATO members Lithuania and Poland, has been acting as a deterrent to what Russia perceives as a Western threat to its sovereignty. A senior Government official in Russia confirmed in 2018 that nuclear-capable Iskander missiles were deployed to Kaliningrad. According to Associated Press, the US Government believes the Kremlin possesses approximately 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, which include different types of bombs, warheads and artillery rounds that can be carried by tactical aircraft.

Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan all relinquished N-arms after late-1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. Under the ‘Budapest Memorandum’ which accompanied relinquishing the weapons, the US, Russia and Britain agreed to respect the territorial integrity of those countries. Lukashenko did not want to give up his country’s nuclear arms, but says it was forced to do so by then Russian President Boris Yeltsin. Ukraine has complained repeatedly that Crimea’s 2014 annexation by Russia from Ukraine and the 2022 invasion were both in violation of that agreement.