THAT India may fast-track the withdrawal of its clutch of military personnel from Maldives, may give the little Indian Ocean island country a sense of victory, all right. Yet, looking at the nature of geopolitical development in the past few days, it can be said safely that with its insistence on removal of the small number of Indian troops, Maldives has invited deeper troubles for itself in near as well as long-term troubles. Though China is outwardly helping Maldives, it is sure that in a time not too distant in future, Beijing will start having a death-like grip on the affairs of the island-nation and finally gobble up the little country, no matter if indirectly, as it has done with several other countries in the past one-and-a-half decades. Having been brain-washed by the Chinese leadership, the Maldivian leaders are in no condition to think calmly about the long-term consequences of their actions. The Maldivian leaders do not seem to realise that they are signing their own doom-warrant. Withdrawing about 80 military personnel from Maldives is not a big deal for India. The operation will be small, and there will be one liability less for the already-burdened Indian Armed Forces from the perspective of its grand national security vision. But by insisting upon the withdrawal of the Indian troops, the Maldives leadership has showed how shallow is its intellectual capability. For India, a greater military alertness will be the creed in the future with focus on the Chinese movement in Maldives.

 

The Chinese interest in Maldives is quite well-known -- in the sense Beijing wants to use the little island for its military base so that some pressure can be exerted on India (in whose backwaters Maldives in located, so to say). Let alone the military purpose China may be harbouring in its mind, it is clear that to put its all stakes in China’s favour will prove to be bad politics -- which is happening everywhere in the world. Many countries that look to China for monetary stability (through direct assistance, or tacit engagement through projects) have realised that Chinese collaboration meant almost a death-warrant for themselves. For, China has never helped anybody with altruistic approach. There are strings attached always, and the Chinese leadership pulls those strings most mercilessly -- most willing to strangulate the economy and vitality of the country in question. Maldives appears headed for such a condition. Some observers may feel tempted to describe the latest development between India and Maldives as a negative happening. To an extent, that may be factually correct.

 

Yet, Maldives will not realise that a small nod from Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi can completely stifle Maldivian economy whose mainstay is tourism. If more than a quarter of a million Indian tourists annually stop patronising Maldives, then the island-nation will have nowhere to go. In that condition, instead of turning the flow of Chinese tourists to Maldives, Beijing will choose to pump a lot of bad money into Maldivian economy and ultimately claim an unofficial control of the country. The Maldivian leaders will, then, become foreign puppets in their own land. India will have to wait for the right moment to make right moves to stage come-back into the scene. This has happened in Sri Lanka. This has happened, with differing details though, in Bangladesh. And this will happen soon even in Nepal. Since international relations are a long-haul business, there is rarely a hurry in grabbing a moment. In the past 8-9 years, Indian diplomacy has matured tremendously, so much so that it has become a major world-player in all issues. As regards Maldives -- and other countries -- New Delhi will have to wait for its moment to come.