THE world, which has been facing quite a tough time handling the prolonged Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, is on the verge of another complex situation following the strikes by Iran on Pakistani soil and subsequent Pakistani air strike inside Iran. The conflict between Iran and Pakistan is not new. Both the countries have been sharing inputs with each other about terror outfits from across the borders. For Iran, the Jaish-al-Adl founded by the members of the erstwhile Jundallah, is a terrorist outfit having rear base in Pakistan but attacking Sistan and Baluchestan regions of Iran. For Pakistan, Balochistan Liberation Army is a terrorist outfit having base in Iran, and attacking Chinese sites in Balochistan region of Pakistan. After striking parts of Iraq and Syria, Iran has struck part of Pakistan. Following this, Pakistan not only recalled its envoy from Iran and asked Iran’s ambassador not to return to Pakistan, but also struck parts of Iran. Both the countries have claimed to have acted in own security interest. Close on the heels, Iran has declared to conduct military exercises in area bordering Pakistan. All these have just heightened the tensions step by step.

 

Apart from adding a new chapter to Shia-Sunni conflict, there exists a complex situation. For, Iran is supporting terrorist group Hamas, whose attack on Israel resulted in a conflict in West Asian region. Yemen’s pro-Palestinian Houthi terrorists are attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, casting uncertainty over an important trade route for Iran. The US, which supports Israel and has been at loggerheads with Iran, has condemned Iran’s strikes in Iraq, Syria, and now Pakistan. China, which is friends with both Iran and Pakistan, has tried to intervene asking both to exercise restraint. The US and China both have their own intentions to serve. However, India has taken a rational stand as is the hallmark of its foreign policy. She has called the tension a matter between Iran and Pakistan, but has reiterated ‘zero tolerance’ towards terrorism. Whether the latest conflict creates an unstable Middle East apart from already volatile West Asia, will have a bearing on the global economy. Already, the global supply chain disruptions in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts have raised global concerns.

 

The Houthis’ strikes on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have sparked fears of global cost escalation and disturbance in energy trade through sea route. In this situation, if multiple players step in in the Iran-Pakistan tension, the global power balance may see a shift, which may not have positive implications for many including two major economies of the region -- China and India. As for Pakistan, it is getting a taste of own medicine. It has done a great injustice to its people, and also affected the regional peace and stability by supporting terrorism as State policy and providing a safe haven to terrorists. Now, that monster of terrorism has grown too big for it to handle. It encouraged radicalism within Pakistan and also provided safe bases to terrorists disturbing the neighbouring countries like Iran, Afghanistan, India. Besides, it has earned the dubious distinction of being an exporter of terrorism. In the past few years, Pakistan has been facing quite an embarrassing situation. Iran is not the first to initiate action against terror group having a base in Pakistan. In 2011, the US had launched the famous operation in military garrison town of Abbottabad in Pakistan to eliminate al-Qa’ida chief Osama bin Laden.

 

More recently, India launched Balakot air strike to cleanse terrorist base in Pakistan following the terrorist attack at Pulwama in India. Three countries taking action against terrorist bases in Pakistan tell the story of the failed terror-harbouring country. The neighbouring countries troubled by terrorists using Pakistan as rear base, have started taking action instead of engaging in time-consuming futile exercise of handing over dossiers to Pakistan. Riddled by radicalisation, fundamentalism, corruption, and massive failure of the elected governments and dictatorships in correcting the course for the people and the economy, Pakistan has decelerated to such a weak position that it can not take action against terrorists. In the instant case, it has carried out air strikes in Iran. But, there is a reason to believe that some bigger international power is operating from behind the curtains to give Pakistan this much teeth. Else, it could not have taken such a step on its own. The ongoing poll campaign in Pakistan could be another factor for Pakistani establishment to score some perception points among the voters. Whatever might be Pakistan’s compulsion, its strike in Iran may not end the latest conflict.

 

Apart from the other geopolitical complexities, one more thing brought again into focus by the latest escalation of tension between the two countries is the restive province of Balochistan in Pakistan. This particular province has been facing atrocities by Pakistan to protect Chinese investment. Besides, Pakistan could never successfully emotionally integrate this province as much of the Islamic country’s energy, time, and efforts were sapped by dictatorships, corruption, and fundamentalism. Now, the spirit of independence is sweeping Balochistan again. In the dynamic sphere of geopolitical situation, which factor becomes more important and has a decisive bearing on the region, cannot be foretold. For, powers may pull the trigger, but those on ground bear the brunt and shape their response to the situation. So, if this conflict becomes prolonged, it may engulf the immediate geographies and also the wider economic landscape of the world trade. Escalation may not be in anyone’s interest.