POST COUP and regime change in Bangladesh on August 5, 2024, the events in the neighbouring country have unfolded at a fast pace. Many theories and reasons for the removal of Sheikh Hasina Government and taking over by an Interim Government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus on August 8, 2024 have emerged and some are yet to unfold. The entire truth may not come out but the coup has left Bangladesh unstable for the time being. The current situation in Bangladesh has clear security implications for India’s security in general and India’s North East (N-E) in particular. As per the latest media reports, the violence against 1.3 crore Hindu minority in Bangladesh has shown signs of coming down. MrYunus has spoken to PM Modi on August 16, 2024 and he assured that the Hindus will be protected. The Bangladesh Police which had suffered 14 policemen killed on July 3, 2024 and thereafter had absented from duty has reappeared, at least in Dhaka.

 

The Army is patrolling the areas inhabited by the Hindus. The Interim Government has regretted that they could not ensure the security of Hindus but the deep chasm between Hindus and Muslims in Bangladesh is clearly visible. The Awami League (AL) leaders are still being targeted and the prominent leaders have gone into hiding. The student leaders block has emerged as another power centre and they have been able to extract the resignation of the judiciary in Bangladesh. Other officials considered favourable to the previous AL government are slowly being removed. In short, there is a new power equation, largely led by the radical Jamaat-e- Islami, is well entrenched in Bangladesh. India may have to start afresh to rebuild relations with Bangladesh. Now let us take a look at India’s North East. There are seven States in India’s NE, namely, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur and Tripura. These seven states are also called the Seven Sisters. In addition, there is strategically important state of Sikkim, which integrated with India in 1975.

 

Sikkim is referred as the brother state of NE. Thus, a total of eight states comprises India’s NE and the entire region has strategic and security implications for India. India’s NE shares an international border of 5185 km with several neighbouring countries. It shares 1395 km of borders with China in the north, 1643 km with Myanmar in the east, 1596 km with Bangladesh in the south west, 97 km with Nepal in the west and 455 km border with Bhutan in the north west. The Siliguri Corridor located in North Bengal connects India’s NE to the rest of the mainland India. The main threat to India’s NE comes from the revival of terrorism in the region. After decades of military operations and peacebuilding initiatives, the region has witnessed relatively peaceful environment.

 

The State and Central Government machinery has been working in tandem for the region’s progress and development. One clear signal of normalcy has been withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from a large number of districts in the region, cutting across the States. The second major visible development has been Modi Government’s ‘Act East Policy’ through regional groupings like Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi- Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). Some connectivity initiatives like Bangladesh-Bhutan -IndiaNepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicles Agreement have succeeded to a large extent, courtesy this policy.While these projects may get delayed now, the security implications of such connectivity under not so friendly regimes may be problematic for India. The situation in Myanmar is not showing any signs of improvement. Myanmar shares boundary with the four N-E states, namely Arunachal Pradesh (520 km), Nagaland (215 km), Manipur (398 km) and Mizoram (510 km). A large number of persecuted Rohingyas have already infiltrated into India. The Arakan Army, a major militant force opposed to the military rule in Myanmar is in control of western State of Rakhine and it is believed to have received arms and ammunition from China. In the past, this region in Myanmar has given shelter to militant groups which operated in Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram.

 

The threat in Manipur is more pronounced because of the continuing ethnic strife between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities. The propensity of major violence with huge amount of arms and ammunition with both the groups in Manipur has surprised the security agencies. The situation in Bangladesh may embolden the inimical forces to further ignite the volatile situation in Manipur. I think the next three months are going to be critical to address the security situation in Manipur and to continue with the peace initiatives simultaneously. In the meantime, serious efforts must continue to build the 398 km integrated fence on Indo-Myanmar border in Manipur. I am worried about the revival of militancy and terrorism in the mother state of India’s NE i.e. Assam. With the improvement in the Law & order situation, the provisions of AFSPA are now applicable in only four districts of the State, which are relatively more disturbed. The peace in Assam has relieved the Army from the counter- terrorism role and these units have concentrated on their core role of defending the borders with China. There are indications of ULFA(I) militant group trying to cause violence in Upper Assam. I have commanded my battalion in the State of Assam at the heights of militancy from 2004-2006. I can say with conviction that the Assam Police is a competent force to deal with and prevent any terror activity in the State. The States of Meghalaya, Nagaland andTripura have witnessed much better peace inthe recent years. Mizoram hasbeen absolutely peaceful fordecades now. I suspect thatattempts will be made to revivesome sort of friction once againin these States. Border guarding agencies like BSF andAssam Rifles may have to beextra careful in ensuring that militant and unlawful elementsdo not get inside our borders, in the disguise of humanitarian crisis in Bangladesh. A careful filtration process and thorough screening may be necessary. The overall gameplan of China, aided by Pakistan ISI will be to tie down as muchIndian Army in the CounterTerrorism (CT ) operations, both in the J&K and the NE. Once they succeed, even if partially, the Army’s commitmentat the borders with China andPakistan gets weakened.

 

Ouradversaries have realised that they may not be able to takeon India in a conventional war, even if it’s a two-front war. Therefore, their grand strategy is to pull back the IndianArmy from the borders andembroil them into manpowerconsuming CT grid. Theglimpses of this strategy arealready visible in the state of J&K, particularly in theJammu region. By keepingmost of India’s NE volatile, thislow-cost option facilitatesbleeding India through thousand cuts. India’s leadership must certainly be seized of the imminent dangers to the security inthe NE. Careful assessment based on hard and timely intelligence would prepare thenation to deal with the external threats and internal instability in the calibrated manner. A close coordinationbetween the Ministry of Defence and Ministry of HomeAffairs would be needed toavoid falling into the trap beingset by our adversaries. Our pastexperience in dealing with suchsituations in the past, as alsomonitoring the happenings inour immediate neighbourhoodwould strengthen the nationtowards peaceful co-existencein the region.