Trouble next door

 

INDIA’s immediate neighbourhood is full of myriad actions these days which can have a direct impact on political, civil as well as security situations here. As it extended a helping hand to cyclone-ravaged Sri Lanka with a USD 450 million aid, India is countering a storm in Bangladesh and a potential squall brewing in Pakistan. Each development has its own consequence and New Delhi has a tricky task ahead to negotiate these storms. While the Lanka front is a humanitarian call after cyclone Ditwah hit the island nation, the fragile situation in Bangladesh remains a major worry for India in the weeks ahead. After the violence on the streets of Bangladesh over killing of two student leaders and mob lynching of a Hindu man, both Dhaka and New Delhi have been engaged in a diplomatic battle.

 

India summoned Bangladesh’s High Commissioner following a failed attack on Indian High Commission in Dhaka while the Indian High Commissioner Mr. Pranay Verma was called to address Bangladesh’s concerns over the security of its missions in India. The diplomatic routine was the result of protests held by the Bajrang Dal and Vishwa Hindu Parishad at the Desh High Commission in New Delhi over the brutal murder of Hindu garment factory worker Dipu Chandra Das. It reflected the mood in India over the situation in the neighbourhood where Hindu minorities are being specifically targeted by anti-India forces enjoying direct patronage from the authorities. More protests are on the cards as law and order continues to remain fragile in Bangladesh under the interim government led by Mr. Mohammed Yunus. India is naturally concerned about the safety of Hindu minorities and will have to take some hard steps for their protection. The problem is the ever-deteriorating bilateral relations with Dhaka since the ouster of former Prime Minister Ms. Sheikh Hasina.

 

The Awami League chief has taken refuge in India after the August 2024 student uprising led to the fall of her government. As India continues to resist her extradition despite formal requests from Dhaka, the diplomatic path ahead to address the concerns of Hindu minorities looks highly improbable. India has done well to show restraint despite provocative statements from Mr. Yunus. New Delhi understands the importance of shunning knee-jerk reactions during a testing phase of diplomacy. India has come up with measured responses to the demands from Dhaka as well as the growing influence of anti-India forces in collusion with the interim government. However, the current situation in Bangladesh where radicals have almost taken control of governance and institutions will require a robust strategy before the unrest spills over into bordering Indian towns in different forms.

 

Mass exodus from Bangladesh is an imminent threat for India. With the Centre and West Bengal locked in a political battle over Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls, there is always a possibility of the porous border becoming a gateway for illegal immigrants. Security situation is also a live threat with extremists fuelling tensions at the border. It is a very dangerous phase which calls for a back-channel diplomatic approach with Dhaka. India will have to come out with a multi-pronged strategy to keep itself insulated at this moment and find ways to work with the next government likely to be installed in February when Bangladesh goes to elections. Another potential security threat for India can come from the developments in Pakistan where jailed former Prime Minister Mr. Imran Khan has called his supporters to launch a street movement against Chief of Defence Forces Gen Asim Munir. Mr. Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) might go for a full-throttle agitation after the latest jail sentence handed to him. The proposed protests against ‘Asim Law’ can result in chaos in Pakistan and an opportunity for extremists to expedite their anti-India activities. India must stay on guard.