T HE Ukraine situation has become far more complex than anyone -- including United States President Mr. Donald Trump and Russian President Mr. Vladimir Putin -- could imagine, in just a matter of 100 hours. With the United Kingdom (UK) agreeing to allow Ukraine to use 1.6-billion-pound of British export finance to fund the purchase of 5,000 missiles before the ensuing peace negotiations, the situation has assumed a rather dangerous hue. For, even as the US and Russia think of engaging in talks to end the conflict, the European Union (EU) countries plan to ensure that Ukraine would be ready to negotiate from a position of strength. By taking such a stance, the United Kingdom has certainly taken a step far too bolder than its general pro-US approach while handling such issues. Of course, it is beyond easy comprehension if this British stance is silently agreed upon by the US for reasons of its own.

 

Yet, there is scope to suspect that quite a lot of subterranean geopolitical currents may be operating before the actual negotiations get going -- no matter the frontis piece of the so-called American stand negotiations without Europe and Ukraine as parties to the whole episode. Some news clips available in public domain about the heated arguments Mr. DonaldTrump and Mr.Volodymyr Zelenskyy do not make it clear as to why the spark took place all of a sudden. But an impression is certainly doing the rounds that Mr. Trump wanted to snap what he might have viewed as fruitless discussions -- possibly because those could jeopardise the outcome of the proposed diplomatic engagement in the next some time. But when British Prime Minister Mr. Keit Starmer said clearly that his country’s allowance to Ukraine was in favour of stronger defence in the period around negotiations, there are grounds to apprehend an escalation of conflict as a pressuretactics from Russia.

 

he substance in this perception cannot be denied. The apprehension, thus, of the situation getting more complex, too, gains strength against this background. Though the US has been a spearhead of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) countries, obvious fault-lines have surfaced in the grouping because of Mr. Trump’s stance.It appears that the US President wishes to emerge as the sole arbitrator of global power balance with nobody claiming any partnership in the process.

 

This is, of course, a lop-sided view of the global situation, and will not help the world in the long run. It is quite fashionable to blame Europe for many of international ills, all right. But if an outsider is going to lord over negotiations in Europe’s hinterland about a conflict in that continent, then the European stance has its own meaning. The British willingness to allow Ukraine to use its export finance to spruce up its defence capabilities possibly stems from this point of view. It is still beyond normal comprehension if the proposed negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict will ever produce intended and positive results. But it is good enough to say that peace between Russia and Ukraine would be possible if the military actions is stopped all of a sudden and calm is allowed to prevail for sometime -- without any provocation from any side. For, when two unpredictable forces are engaged in a dispute or conflict (Russia and the US in this case), negotiations cannot be considered as fruitful easily. This conflict got triggered when the Western bloc instigated Ukraine to seek NATO membership -- much against the Russian wish. Its end, therefore, cannot be expected to come with the application of a lopsided solution. It is obvious that any solution to the current Ukraine conflict needs a far more complex handling than can be imagined at this stage.