Bear And The Bully

 

 

 

THE second half of 2025 has, probably, started the giant churning in the global order that the world was waiting with great anxiety. Hectic geopolitical activities are defining the rapidly changing thinking of top powers gripped with the rigid idea of protectionism and also with the fear of losing importance. New alliances and steady shifts in foreign policies are on the anvil even as nations rework their time-tested strategies. The change in global thinking has pushed India to a position where it has a double dilemma of safeguarding its independent thinking while carefully choosing future partners without compromising on its sovereign structure. It is time for India to hit the refresh button. Dealing firmly with the Trump Tantrums, India has set off on a new journey to pick partners for the future without losing sight of the present problems. It looks like a fresh beginning of power relationships as New Delhi ponders over the tricky choice of going into a huddle with China while keeping the United States interested but at an arm’s distance.

 

The tariff bomb thrown by United States President Donald Trump has definitely forced India to redraw its strategy of keeping Washington too close. Though India has emerged as a vital strategic partner for the US in its security firmament, the reckless behaviour by Trump in his wayward second term has shown that the US cannot be fully trusted. The US double standards have remained permanent since India’s Independence. Each ruling dispensation in New Delhi has been careful in its strategic ties with Washington. The NDA Government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, cultivated ties with the US according to this broad, multi-alignment framework. India’s deep and warm relations with Russia is a case in point.

 

The energy on display in the Indo-US dynamic in Trump’s first term raised the possibilities of New Delhi leaning too much on Washington but the Modi Government was wise enough to leverage the bonhomie to extract multiple concessions from America. India’s smart-play to avoid sanctions under the stringent CAATSA while buying the S-400 missiles from Russia will remain a significant achievement. Its importance has come out in a profound manner during the Operation Sindoor. Now, the time is to expand the canvas at full throttle making the US realise that India already had its options ready in case of another fit of arrogance by White House. It has remained a feature of India’s diplomacy since Independence to partner with countries deeply divided by geopolitics. It has healthy ties with Israel and also with Iran, it shares a traditional warmth with Russia and also stands with Ukraine, it hails Israel’s right of self-defence and also champions the cause of having a separate Palestine under the two-State policy.

 

This ability of multi-alignment will be an essential factor in the fracturing global order where the US is out to upend international relations. It is vastly clear that the US is selectively targeting India for buying Russian oil to pressure President Vladimir Putin to hammer out a peace deal with Ukraine. The move to sanction India while ignoring China’s purchases from Russia is part of a sinister strategy to force Moscow to negotiate a resolution to the war. The sole aim of the additional tariffs on India is to influence the Russia-Ukraine talks. In the face of this hostility, India is left with no option than to refuse to be used as a bait in the power game. It can be achieved only by extending a hand of friendship to other powers including Europe, Russia and China. The proposed reset of Sino-Indian relations is already underway as New Delhi sends a signal to the Trump administration that it is ready to fight for its dignity without caring for consequences. The road ahead comes with a different set of challenges.

 

While the consequences of needling Trump’s ego can come in various forms, India definitely has the spirit and ability to absorb those shocks. The fierce national pride on display in the country to fight the American high-handedness gives the Centre a potent weapon to bring revolutionary business and trade reforms with long-term benefits. However, the real challenge to counter will come from the relationship with China. It is a complex connection, still haunted by the ghost of 1962. Subsequent years have proved that the Chinese belief of ruling a Middle Kingdom is still very much alive and it sees India as a major impediment. With such a dangerous background, trusting the Chinese with good relations in all forms can turn out to be a ghastly mistake. It is with this thinking New Delhi will have to shape the future of Sino-Indian bonding to counter the US. The Indo-Chinese relation can turn out to be a gamechanger only if Beijing desists from its imperialistic dreams. In fact, China can reap great dividends if it chooses India as a geostrategic partner instead of the unreliable Pakistan which has a proclivity to play White House’s minion at the first smell of dollars. For India, more than the trade deficit it is the trust deficit that weighs heavy before opening doors for China. The choice of friends for the future will be extremely important for India in this global churning.

 

It may choose new allies or renew ties with old ones according to the prevailing situation but New Delhi must keep Russia as a pivot in every future alliance. The Indo-Russian ties will be the most consequential bilateral relationship of the future. India must never abandon Russia despite pressures from the West. Russia remains the most accommodating partner in the last 79 years. And it will always have India’s back. It is a special ‘Bear Hug’, beyond Trump’s comprehension. India needs the ‘Bear’ to fight the ‘Bully’.