Contemporary geopolitical conflicts& their global impact

 

 

The post-pandemic world has entered an era where geopolitics is no longer confined to diplomatic circles - it’sadaily disruptor of business, trade, and global stability. From the Red Sea to the Taiwan Strait, Russia Ukraine to Israel-Gaza & US tariffs to Nepal’s turmoil, geopolitical flashpoints are erupting and multiplying, and their ripple effects are felt everywhere. What was once a niche academic term has now become a household word. Geopolitical conflicts are reshaping global supply chains, inflating fuel and food prices, and triggering diplomatic realignments. The cost of export logistics has surged, and strategic chokepoints are under threat. This is not just a shift—it’s a seismic reordering of global priorities. What is Geopolitics?

 

At its core, geopolitics is the study of how geography — location, terrain, climate, resources, and demographics - interacts with political power. It explains how nations behave, form alliances, and engage in conflict. As Saul Cohen described, it’s the “dynamic interaction between geographical settings and political processes.” Geopolitics blends geography, political science, and international relations to decode how physical realities shape the rise and fall of empires, influence foreign policy, and determine global trade patterns. Four Pillars of Geopolitical Influence Spatial Influence: Nations with strategic locations— coastal access, natural barriers, or proximity to trade routes—wield disproportionate power. Geography can protect, isolate, or empower.

 

Resource Access: Control over oil, gas, rare earths, and shipping lanes drives competition and cooperation. Classical theories emphasize how resource distribution shapes regional equilibrium. Security Strategy: Geography defines military posture. From cyber threats to climate challenges, geopolitical strategy determines how nations protect sovereignty and citizens. Global Power: Dynamics Governance models—democratic vs authoritarian—shape alliances. States engage through cooperation, coercion, or conflict, depending on their geopolitical calculus. Geopolitical Flashpoints and Fault Lines: Russia–Ukraine:

 

The unending War What began with Crimea’s annexation in 2014 escalated into full-scale war in 2022. As of September 2025, Russia’s aggression continues, with Ukraine fiercely resisting. The war has fractured East-West relations, triggered sanctions, and caused massive civilian casualties—over 13,000 dead and 31,000 injured, according to UN estimates. Territorial integrity, NATO expansion, and regime orientation are at the heart of this conflict. The war has disrupted global wheat and fertilizer markets, triggered refugee crises, and intensified geopolitical polarization. Israel–Iran and the Gaza Conflagration Renewed violence in Gaza and escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran have raised fears of a broader regional war.

 

This is not just a military confrontation—it’s a clash of ideologies, nuclear diplomacy, and regional dominance. Proxy engagements and airstrikes have become routine, destabilizing the Middle East and threatening global oil flows. Taiwan Strait & South China Sea: A Powder Keg China’s military posturing near Taiwan and disputed waters has heightened tensions with the US and its allies. While not yet a fullblown conflict, the risk of confrontation looms large. Naval build-ups and strategic alliances like QUAD and AUKUS are reshaping IndoPacific security dynamic India–Pakistan: The Shadow Of Op Sindoor In May 2025, terrorist attacks in Pahalgam triggered near-war conditions. India’s military mobilisation and diplomatic standoff with Pakistan reignited long-standing tensions over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism.

 

The situation remains volatile, with strategic implications for South Asia’s stability. Trump 2.0: Geopolitics On Steroids President Trump’s second term has ushered in a doctrine of economic nationalism and strategic protectionism. Tariffs are no longer economic tools—they’re weapons of foreign policy. A 50% tariff on Indian goods triggered a breakdown in Indo-US relations, with India pivoting toward China and Russia at the SCO Summit in Tianjin. The Quad’s cohesion has weakened, and the optics of US-India relations resemble a “jilted lover syndrome.” Trump’s tariff diplomacy has transformed global trade into a theatre of coercion and chaos.

 

Trade Disruptions And Economic Fallout Geopolitical tensions are wreaking havoc on global commerce: Supply Chain Disruptions: Port closures and rerouting inflate costs. Tariff Wars: Strategic penalties reshape alliances. Sanctions: Isolation of economies through export controls. Currency Volatility: Uncertainty destabilises exchange rates. The Russia–Ukraine war alone caused spikes in wheat and fertiliser prices, demonstrating how conflict can ripple through global markets. Geo-Economics And Multipolar Instability Sanctions & Tariffs: Economic tools are now geopolitical weapons. Investment Screening: Nations tighten controls on strategic sectors. Currency Weaponisation: BRICS+ challenges dollar dominance.

 

Proxy Conflicts: External powers fuel civil wars for leverage. BRICS+ expansion and Indo-Pacific militarisation are reshaping global governance and trade norms, while proxy conflicts deepen instability. Coping With Chaos: Resilience & Adaptation Supply Chain Analytics: Businesses invest in predictive tools. Policy Recalibration: Governments balance efficiency with security. Corporate Strategy: Firms adopt risk-aware models. Multilateral Dialogue: Urgent need to preserve global norms. Geopolitical literacy is no longer optional - it’s essential.

 

As the world navigates this turbulent terrain, understanding the forces at play is the first step toward resilience. (The author is a retired IAS officer of Additional Chief Secretary rank from Maharashtra, now serving as Professor of Practice at IIM Nagpur. He served as Divisional Commissioner, Nagpur.Acommitted advocate for Vidarbha’s development, he continues to contribute as Chairman of the Nagpur City Heritage Conservation Committee)