A wet January? Brace for possible winter rains!

 

 

 

 

Weather conditions across Madhya Pradesh remained largely dry during the past 24 hours, with light rainfall recorded at isolated places over the Gwalior and Chambal divisions, while the remaining parts of the state experienced dry weather. This rainfall activity, though limited, has played a key role in expanding moisture availability, setting the stage for a broader rain spell expected later this week, including over Bhopal, where the first winter rain of the season is now likely on 27 January.

 

The prevailing synoptic situation shows a Western Disturbance in the form of a cyclonic circulation over Jammu and adjoining Pakistan, along with an induced cyclonic circulation over north Punjab. A subtropical westerly jet stream continues to prevail over northeast India. Another fresh Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from 26 January, which is expected to significantly influence weather over Madhya Pradesh. As a result, rain activity is likely to increase from January 27. On that day, rainfall is expected over the Gwalior–Chambal belt, including Gwalior, Bhind, Morena, Sheopur and Datia, extending further south and centralwards to Bhopal and Raisen. Rain is also likely over parts of Ujjain and Shajapur divisions, covering Ujjain, Shajapur, Mandsaur, Neemuch, Ratlam and Agar-Malwa, along with Rajgarh, Vidisha, Guna,

 

Ashoknagar, Sagar, Chhatarpur and Tikamgarh. If rainfall occurs as expected, Bhopal may record its first winter rain of the season on January 27. By January 28, the rain belt is expected to shift towards north and east MP, affecting Rewa, Satna, Sidhi, Shahdol, Singrauli, Damoh, Maihar, Narsinghpur, Katni and Jabalpur, while parts of Sagar, Raisen, Vidisha and Tikamgarh may continue to experience rain or cloudy conditions.

 

During the last 24 hours, maximum temperatures fell appreciably by 2.3°C to 3.2°C over districts of the Ujjain and Chambal divisions, while no significant change was observed over the remaining divisions. Despite this fall, maximum temperatures remained above normal by 1.6°C to 2.2°C in districts of Bhopal, Narmadapuram and Jabalpur divisions, and appreciably above normal by 3.2°C to 3.8°C in districts of Gwalior, Rewa, Shahdol and Sagar divisions, while they remained near normal elsewhere. Minimum temperatures also showed noticeable variation across the state.

 

They fell appreciably by 2.3°C to 3.6°C in districts of the Bhopal, Ujjain and Chambal divisions, while an appreciable rise of about 2.4°C was recorded in districts of the Rewa division. No significant change was observed in the remaining divisions. Minimum temperatures were above normal by 2.0°C to 2.9°C in districts of Bhopal, Indore and Ujjain divisions, and appreciably above normal by 3.3°C to 4.9°C over Narmadapuram, Gwalior, Chambal, Rewa, Jabalpur, Shahdol and Sagar divisions.

 

Mandsaur recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 7.3°C, while the highest minimum temperature of 17.3°C was observed at Narmadapuram. The lowest maximum temperature in the state was recorded at Sheopur (23.4°C), whereas Khandwa remained the hottest with a maximum temperature of 31.1°C. In terms of rainfall amounts, Datia received 1.0 mm and Bhind 0.2 mm during the past 24 hours. Moderate fog was observed over Datia and Bhop al districts, while shallow fog prevailed over Gwalior, Satna, Chhatarpur (Nowgong) and Rewa, affecting visibility during early morning hours.

 

The weather outlook indicates no large change in temperatures over the next 48 hours. Thereafter, minimum temperatures are expected to rise by 2°C to 5°C for a short period due to cloud cover and rainfall, followed by another fall in night temperatures once the system moves away. Dense fog is likely at isolated places over Gwalior, Datia, Bhind, Morena, Rewa, Satna, Panna, Chhatarpur,

 

Tikamgarh and Niwari districts, while moderate fog may occur at isolated places over Bhopal, Vidisha, Raisen, Sehore, Rajgarh and adjoining areas. For Bhopal and its neighbourhood, temperatures around 23°C (maximum) 13°C (minimum) expected during next 24 hours. With increasing cloudiness and rain chances from 27 January. and 13°C (minimum) during the next 24 hours. With increasing cloudiness and rain chances from 27 January, a noticeable shift in winter conditions is expected across the capital and adjoining districts.