Changing voter mood makes NMC battle tighter than 2017

 

 

 

As Nagpur gets ready for the Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC) elections next week, both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are closely working on the voting trends from recent elections. The civic polls come at a time when voter behaviour has clearly changed since the 2017 municipal elections, which makes the contest much tighter this time. 

 

 

The BJP is careful in the elections. Party leaders are working to maintain the momentum of recent Assembly elections and to avoid that, voter turnout seen in the Lok Sabha elections would not be repeated in the NMC polls. Historically, low turnout has not favoured the BJP in civic elections, particularly in areas where the Congress has a strong base. Keeping this in mind, Nitin Gadkari has asked party workers to focus strongly on North and West Nagpur. BJP leaders believe that even a small change in turnout in these pockets could have a major impact on results. 

 

 

The Congress is entering the NMC elections with party leaders believing the voting trend seen in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections may continue in the civic polls and work in their favour. Though Union Minister Nitin Gadkari retained the Nagpur Lok Sabha seat, his victory margin dropped sharply compared to 2019. In fact, Gadkari’s lead reduced by 78,406 votes in 2024. Congress leaders see this as a strong signal in their favour and trying hard to maintain the momentum, especially, in North Nagpur and West Nagpur.

 

 

In the 2017 NMC elections, the BJP enjoyed a clear advantage. Of the 11.25 lakh votes polled, the BJP secured 4,35,719 votes (38.71%), while the Congress got 3,15,992 votes (28.07%). The BSP polled 8.92%, while Independents and smaller parties together took away a sizeable share. In North and West Nagpur, the Congress had won seven seats in 2017. However, the BSP’s strong presence at the time split the Opposition vote and hurt Congress prospects in several wards. This time, Congress leaders say the political ground has shifted. The BSP’s impact was barely visible in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress believes that BSP voters, especially, in North Nagpur, are now moving towards the party. This was clearly seen in the Assembly elections, where former minister Dr Nitin Raut won North Nagpur by 18,467 votes. In contrast, during the Lok Sabha polls, Gadkari had trailed by a huge 32,215 votes. Congress leaders feel this trend could repeat in the NMC elections. 

 

 

The 2024 Assembly elections offered important clues. In Nagpur West, Congress MLA Vikas Thakre won by 5,824 votes and reversed the Lok Sabha result, where Gadkari had a narrow lead of 6,584 votes. This swing has strengthened the Congress belief that voters clearly separate national and local elections. In Nagpur North too, the Congress performed strongly, while the BJP struggled. However, Nagpur East remained firmly with the BJP, where Gadkari secured a massive lead of 73,371 votes in the Lok Sabha elections. This area is expected to remain the BJP’s strong pillar in the civic polls as well. Problems such as poor roads, water supply, sanitation and drainage are expected to influence voter decisions, which the Congress hopes, will help it increase its seat count. 

 

 

The BJP is responding by pushing hard for voter mobilisation. Party leaders are highlighting development work done during their tenure in the NMC and are focusing on wards where margins were thin in recent elections. Special efforts are being made in sensitive pockets where even minor shifts could decide outcomes. The party has also planned election campaign and organising campaign by star campaigners, including Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Union Minister Nitin Gadkari.