With fading winters and rising temperatures, a significant shift in the atmospheric set-up is poised to break the sunshine streak. According to the meteorological observations and synoptic charts, a transition in weather patterns is expected to bring rain and thundery activity to the northern and north-western parts of the State on February 18. This change comes on the heels of a relatively stable 24-hour period where the State saw dry conditions and temperatures trending above the seasonal normal. The primary driver of this impending change is a potent western disturbance, currently positioned as a cyclonic circulation over north-west Afghanistan and its neighbourhood. This system, located between 3.1 and 7.6 km above mean sea level and tilting north-westwards with height, is moving toward the Indian subcontinent. Simultaneously, a high-velocity Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream, with core winds reaching speeds of approximately 240 kmph at 12.6 km above mean sea level, continues to prevail over the region. This atmospheric combination is expected to draw moisture and instability into the state’s upper latitudes.

 

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has identified a specific corridor that will bear the brunt of this precipitation. The rain is expected to manifest across the Gwalior and Chambal belts, specifically impacting districts including Gwalior, Shivpuri, Guna, Ashoknagar, Datia, Bhind, Morena, and Sheopur. Additionally, the weather transition will extend into the western and central districts of Neemuch, Mandsaur, and Rajgarh, as well as the Bundelkhand pocket covering Tikamgarh, Chhatarpur, and Niwadi. Isolated showers may also be witnessed as far south as Burhanpur. Prior to this shift, the State recorded varying thermal profiles. While the maximum temperatures remained normal in several divisions, they were appreciably above normal by up to 3.1°C in the Gwalior division and 2.5°C in Bhopal and Indore.

 

On the lower end of the spectrum, Karoundi in Katni recorded the state’s lowest minimum temperature at 6.7°C, while Khandwa saw the highest maximum at 34.5°C. In the capital, Bhopal, the mercury hovered around 29.6°C during the day and 12.6°C at night. As the rain is likely to arrive on February 18, residents should prepare for a change in wind and visibility. Average wind speeds are forecast to stay between 10 to 12 kmph, but gusty conditions may accompany thundery developments. Furthermore, the increased moisture is likely to cause haze and shallow fog during the early morning hours, particularly in the Gwalior-Chambal region. While minimum temperatures are expected to rise gradually by 2-3°C over the next two days due to cloud cover, the subsequent passage of the system may invite a fresh chill. For farmers in the Gwalior, Chambal, and Rajgarh belts, the IMD suggests monitoring crops closely. The recent spell of cloudy weather has increased the risk of aphids in mustard, radish, and beans; if infestation exceeds economic thresholds, timely intervention is recommended before the rain sets in.