THE Southwest Monsoon has advanced further as the northern limit of the monsoon now passes directly through Indore, Sagar, and Sidhi. Atmospheric conditions remain highly favourable for the monsoon to cover the remaining parts of the State over the next two days. This advancement is being driven by a seasonal sea-level trough stretching from Punjab to the North Bay of Bengal, coupled with a cyclonic circulation over the North Bay of Bengal that is expected to develop into a lowpressure area by early July. Additionally, a fresh western disturbance is slated to approach Northwest India, ensuring an active and wet week ahead. Rainfall was recorded at a few places across the Bhopal, Narmadapuram, Ujjain, and Gwalior divisions, while isolated pockets in the Indore, Chambal, Rewa, Jabalpur, Shahdol, and Sagar divisions also witnessed showers. Intense downpours lashed several areas, with Garhakota recording a massive 160.5 mm of rain, followed closely by Mungaoli at 129.0 mm and Pithampur at 120.0 mm. The weather department categorised the rainfall as very heavy in districts like Sagar, Ashoknagar, Dhar, and Betul, while heavy spells were observed in Damoh, Seoni, Niwari, Guna, Dewas, and Khargone. High-velocity gusty winds also swept the region, peaking at 43 km/h in Ashoknagar and hovering around 37 km/h in major hubs like Bhopal, Indore, and Gwalior. The widespread monsoon activity triggered noticeable temperature fluctuations across the state. Daytime maximum temperatures fell appreciably by over 2°C in the Chambal division, while remaining stable elsewhere. Interestingly, temperatures soared nearly 5°C above normal in parts of the Rewa, Jabalpur, Shahdol, and Sagar divisions, with Khajuraho tracking the state’s highest maximum temperature at 41.2°C. Conversely, night temperatures saw a marked drop of over 5°C in the Shahdol division and a significant decline across Rewa and Sagar.

 

The lowest minimum temperature in the state was a cool 19.0°C, shared by Damoh and Pachmarhi. For Bhopal and its immediate neighbourhoods, the immediate forecast indicates a generally cloudy sky accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and sustained rain. Daytime temperatures in the capital are expected to peak at 31°C, while the minimum temperature will hover around 24°C, with average wind speeds ranging between 14 to 16 km/h. In the capital, where the maximum temperature touched 34.2°C and humidity peaked at a sticky 84% despite zero immediate rainfall at the main station. Total cumulative rainfall for Bhopal since June 1 stands at a substantial 237.0 mm, which is nearly 90 mm above the seasonal normal. Looking ahead, a broader drop in temperatures by 3°C to 4°C is expected across the entire state over the next five days. The Meteorological Centre Bhopal has issued an orange warning for several eastern and south-eastern districts for July 1. Intense, very heavy rainfall ranging from 115.6 mm to 204.4 mm, coupled with active thunderstorms and lightning, is expected to batter districts including Mandla, Dindori, and Balaghat. Alongside this deluge, a yellow alert spans across the central, western, and northern belts, including Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur, Gwalior, and Rewa divisions, where residents should brace for heavy rainfall between 64.5 mm and 115.5 mm, dangerous lightning strikes, and severe gusty winds reaching speeds of 40 to 50 km/h. Monsoon magic, sweltering breaks, and long-term July trends: According to long-term climate data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), July typically witnesses the southwest monsoon establishing a firm grip over Bhopal, though the month is defined by a dynamic interplay of active downpours and brief, sweltering breaks.

 

This shifting pattern is dictated by the movement of the monsoon trough; its southward migration triggers aggressive spells of heavy rain, while a northward shift brings a break monsoon period where rain takes a back seat, temperatures spike, and the city experiences highly humid, uncomfortable conditions. On average, the capital receives a substantial 367.7 mm of rainfall spread across roughly 14.4 rainy days, alongside an average of 3.5 thunderstorm days. During these intervals, westerly surface winds prevail, keeping the daytime maximum temperatures hovering around a moderate 30.9°C and night-time minimums at a cooler 23.8°C, though sticky humidity levels consistently fluctuate between 74% and 85%. While these monthly averages paint a stable picture, historical records highlight July’s reputation for extreme volatility, alongside a highly fluctuating trend over the last decade. Looking closely at the recent ten-year block from 2016 to 2025, this erratic behaviour remains clear. For instance, July 2022 emerged as an exceptionally wet month in recent memory with 854.5 mm of total rainfall, including a heavy 132.4 mm single-day spike on July 10, whereas July 2020 proved unusually dry, registering a meagre 154.7 mm. Peak summer-like heat has also made brief guest appearances over the last ten years, with daytime maximums frequently pushing between 33.0°C and 37.8°C before the monsoon rains dragged the mercury back down